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Eurovision 2012: Voting Analyis

Welcome to the voting analysis of the Eurovision Song Contest 2012. Here we will look closely at the voting of this year’s Eurovision Song Contest Final and find out who voted for whom.

Who voted for Sweden?

Sweden was the run-away winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2012! Our map is almost entirely green in the North and the West and only once it is red.

Loreen’s song Euphoria was very popular in the so-called “Scandinavian block”. She swept 12 points from Iceland, Norway, Finland and Denmark. She also dominated in the Baltic states getting 12 from Estonia and Latvia and 1o from Lithuania (their 12 points have to go to the Caucasus as it seems). In most of these countries “Euphoria” had been a hit on the charts (#1 in Finland) and it could be expected that Sweden would do well there.

Sweden also swept the 12 points of the “traditional” Big 4 countries: Germany, Spain, United Kingdom and France. Apart from that she also got top marks from the smaller Western European countries such as Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands.

In Central Europe, apart from Germany, Sweden also got 12 points from Austria, Hungary and Slovakia. On the Balkans she was also rather successful, although not as successful as in the North and West. She got 10 points from Slovenia, Serbia and Romania and 8 points from Bosnia and Bulgaria. 7 to 6 points came from Turkey, Greece, Macedonia, Croatia, Montenegro.

On the Caucasus Sweden did very will,  Loreen got 8 points from Georgia and 7 points from host country Azerbaijan. She also did very well in Israel (12 points) and Cyprus (10 points). In the East, Sweden did very will in Russia (12 points) and also got 6 or 7 points in Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus.

Euphoria was the least successful in Portugal where it got only 3 points and Albania where she got 5 points. The only country awarding her less than 3 points was Italy, which completely ignored the song. Both Portugal and Italy have a record of ignoring future Eurovision winners, though.

All in all, Sweden can celebrate a smashing victory that is most impressive in the West, North and in Central Europe. But the Swedish entry transcended traditional voting patterns and was also well received on the Balkans and in the Caucasus. Southern Europe was the least impressed, but even there Loreen did reasonably well: That makes a winner!

Who Voted For Russia?

At first sight, Russia’s neighbors were very generous. Almost all of the gave at least 8 points: Finland and Estonia awarded 8 points to the grannies, Latvia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan 10. The only 12 points for the “Big mother Russia” came from Belarus. This connection seemed to have stopped working in the last years. In 2011, Russia only got 5 points from Belarus and on home soil in 2009 Russia only got 8 points. The exception among the neighbors is of course Georgia, who fought a war against Russia in 2008. Nevertheless, they gave Russia 5 points.

Apart from the support from neighbors, the grannies were also very popular in other parts of Europe, though. They received 10 points from both Italy and San Marino, 8 points from the “old Eurovision nations” Spain, Portugal and Belgium. And also scored high in Scandinavia getting 8 from Denmark, Norway and Finland and at least 6 from Sweden and Iceland.

The Balkans were seemingly also impressed. The highest points came from Slovenia (8) Croatia, Hungary, Serbia and Bulgaria also awarded 6 or 7 points each. The only country that ignored Russia completely was Switzerland.

All in all the result for Russia is very diverse in all parts of Europe. We can certainly not speak of an entry that only reached its place due to block voting. The appeal of the grannies that many qualify as “the cuteness factor” was understood by Europeans in West and East, North and South alike. It is quite possible that the grannies and Loreen batteled for the victory in the televoting in some countries. Overall, Sweden’s victory is too impressive, however, for them not the be the winners of the televote.

Who voted for Serbia?

This one is very interesting! There is no doubt that Zeljko Joksimovic is a respected and great musician and his song was praised for its quality by many fans and press and his third place would be considered a deserved result. However, when we look at the actual votes it seems as if Serbia mostly profited from block and diaspora votes.

We see that Serbia got its top marks from their neighbors Montenegro, Croatia, Bulgaria and from Slovenia. Bosnia and Macedonia also awarded Zeljko 10 points. These votes may be interpreted as block voting by many who do not know of the superstar status Zeljko Joksimovic enjoys in all of these countries. Additionally, they share a similar musical culture and tradition and last but not least the song was sung in Serbian, a language very closely related to Bosnian, Croatian, Slovene and Bulgarian. The 12 points from Bulgaria may serve as proof for the fact that it was mostly the quality of the song and the popularity of the singer that pushed Serbia and not friendly votes. Usually, Bulgaria does not have a record of voting for Serbia (or any former Yugoslav countries’ for that matter). Bulgarian’s seemed to appreciate the song this time and voted for it.

Otherwise, Serbia also did very well in Austria, Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden from which Zeljko got 10 points. All of these countries have a significant Serbian (or Yugoslav) diaspora. One could argue that the immigrants in these countries only voted for their native country regardless of the song. If we look at 2011 however, the high points from Sweden and Norway did not go to Serbia but to Bosnia-Herzegovina (represented by another superstar in the Balkan region: Dino Merlin). This suggest that the entire Ex-Yugoslav diaspora votes for their favorite song. They have the same musical background as people at the Balkans and so they will “understand” a song perhaps more than other people. They vote for the song they like the most and this year that happened to be Serbia. To suggest that Bosnians vote for Serbia because they like the country so much is absurd.

All of this is also not to say that no Norwegians, Swedes or Swiss voted for Serbia. I myself, 100% German, had Serbia as my favorite and voted for it several times. Also, it is quite improbable that Serbia would be able to get 10 points from these countries if the juries had not supported the song as well.  The fact that Denmark, Iceland and Finland completely disagree with Norway and Sweden on the Serbian song is important, though. If Scandinavians share a similar musical taste it would be very strange if one country gave 10 and the other no points to Serbia. This implies that diaspora does play a role in the votes.

In general I would like to add one argument about diaspora votes. The people voting in Norway are representing the Norwegian society at that moment. The Serbs, Turks etc are part of Norway for example and thus the points awarded do reflect the musical taste of Norway. I have been in Bulgaria for over a year and have since then noticed that I appreciate Balkan music much more and I have voted for Serbia, Macedonia and Bulgaria (among others) this year… Does this mean I am also diaspora?

Who Voted For Albania?

A first look at the map shows that Albania got a big chunk of its points from countries around the Adriatic Sea. All countries that gave Albania high points have a big Albanian diaspora. Especially Macedonia, Switzerland and Italy, which all awarded 12 points to Albania, but also Austria, Belgium, Montenegro and Germany have large immigrant groups especially from the Kosovo, where Rona Nishliu was born.  Other points came from fellow Muslim countries Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey. These are the facts, but we should also take into consideration that Albania was usually not a country which profited from diaspora or block voting too much and people actually voted for the performance not for the country. Additionally the song has probably been supported by juries as well. Anke Engelke, head of the German jury, revealed on live television that she really liked the song and voted for it for instance.

Who voted for Estonia?

A first look at the map tells us that the Estonian song was mostly liked by Western and Northern Europe, while the South-East of the continent is completely red, which means Ott Leplands ballad got no points there at all. We can notice that countries close to Estonia, such as Finland, Latvia, Sweden and Lithuania were very generous. The Irish 8 points are not surprising as Ireland usually goes for ballads and there is also an Estonian diaspora in Ireland.

Additionally Iceland, France and Slovakia awarded 10 points to the small Baltic country. High points also came from neighbors Russia, Norway, the Netherlands, Spain and Portugal. The only of the Nordic countries that completely ignored Estonia was surprisingly Denmark.

All in all an impression I had in other contests as well has been reinforced here: Estonia is voting-wise no longer an Easter European country, but a Northern European country. I don’t think “Kuula” did as well as it did because of Block voting. The map shows that there seems to be a different taste when it comes to this king of music in South-Eastern and in North-Western Europe.

Comparing the Albanian ballad with the Estonian ballad we can say that in general, where Estonia did well, Albania did not and vice versa.

Who voted for Turkey:

The answer would be: Muslim countries and countries with a strong Turkish diaspora. The connection Turkey-Azerbaijan is now almost certainly as strong as the old Greece-Cyprus deal. Other high points came from Albania and Macedonia (high Muslim population) as well as Germany, Netherlands, Bulgaria, Belgium and Sweden (countries with a high Turkish diaspora). The only high points that are not explainable through these two patterns are the 8 points from Malta.

Who voted for Germany?

The Southern Balkans, the former Soviet states and Scandinavia were not impressed with the German song. 10 points came from a couple of smaller countries: Portugal, Hungary, Ireland, Estonia and Denmark. These 5 made up almost half of Germany’s overall points and thus ensured the third Top 10 result in a row. High points also came from fellow Big 5 countries, Italy, the UK and France. Overall a result that does not rely on voting patterns. The only “friends” Germany might have are Switzerland and Austria who both only had 4 points despite a strong German diaspora (Switzerland) and success of Raab shows in both these countries.

Who voted for Italy?

One of the pre-contest favorites, Italy did not do as well as expected. Their points came from almost everywhere, but there was only one set of more than 7 points, which came from Malta. The Italian song didn’t do particularly well in a certain voting block. Norway and Denmark gave it points, while Sweden, Finland and Iceland ignored it. Croatia, Slvenia and Montenegro liked it while Serbia and Bosnia didn’t have it in their Top 10 and so on.

Who voted for Spain?

Spain can count on Portugal! The only 12 points to Spain came from their neighbor. More high points came from Israel, the UK and Switzerland (Portuguese diaspora perhaps?). The song didn’t do very well in the North and the East however. Also fellow Big5 nations Italy and Germany ignored the song.

Who voted for Moldova?

Moldova’s highest points came from its two neighbors, Romania (12) and Ukraine (8). Otherwise the song did will in Spain and Portugal with a high Romanian and Moldovan diaspora there as well as Italy and especially in San Marino (10 points).

Who voted for Romania?

Moldova returned the favor and gave its neighbor Romania their 12 points. More high points came from Spain (the song was half in Spanish +Romanian diaspora of course). Italy, Greece and Azerbaijan also voted for Mandinga. It didn’t get a single points from the Ex-Yugo countries or Central European countries and was also almost completely ignored in Nothern Europe (Scandinavia and Baltics).

Who voted for Macedonia?

Who voted for Macedonia? The Balkan block and Turkey. Superstar Kaliopi got top marks from Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia, high points from Croatia, Montenegro, Albania and Turkey. Otherwise she got some points in Easter Europe and from Italy. All other countries did not have Macedonia in their Top 10 which paints our map very red in the West, North and East.

Who voted for Lithuania?

Lithania got the usual 12 from new-found pals Georgia and also 8 from their neighbors Belarus. Otherwise, Norway was quite generous. The rather high points from Ireland and the UK are explainable with the big Lithuanian diaspora there. Otherwise, Love is blind got some points from the Baltic friends, Russia, Bulgaria, France and the Netherlands and was ignored on the Balkans, in the South and in Central Europe.

Who voted for Cyprus?

Of course, 12 from Greece no need to even mention that. But, Cyprus also received top marks from Sweden. In the annual SVT preview show, the panel liked the Cypriot entry and so did the Swedish people. After the preview show was aired, Cyprus entered the Swedish iTunes charts. Surprisingly only Iceland agreed with Sweden (8points) the rest of Scandinavia ignored the song completely. More high points came from Serbia (8), where also the rest of the Balkan countries completely ignored the song. All in all it seems that it was a love or hate entry for most countries.

Who voted for Ukraine?

Cyprus reached the same amount of points, but from less countries and is thus one place below Ukraine. Please go to our last post to see the analysis for Cyprus. Sorry for the mix-up.

Ukraine got almost half its points from its direct neighbors. There were 10 points from Belarus, 8 points from the big mother of Russia and another 8 points from Moldova. It’s interesting that Romania didn’t give the song a single point, however. That would be an argument against my own view that much of the “neighborhood voting” is actually cultural. Why does Moldova give a song 8 points while culturally close Romania does not?. Other high points came from Latvia and Georgia. In short, Ukraine this year would be one of the countries that suffers the most if we take off the block votes.

Who voted for Greece?

Apart from the obvious 12 points from Cyprus, Greece also got top marks from neighbors Albania. 8 points came from Romania, while Serbia, Moldova, Ukraine and Azerbaijan had 4 or 5 points to spare. Otherwise, the Greek song apparently did not please many voters even in countries with a strong Greek diaspora: Greece only got one point from Germany and nothing at all from the UK, which is quite unusual if you look at recent years.

Who voted for Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Naturally, the Balkan ballad from Bosnia got points from the other Balkan countries. 10 from Croatia were the best they were able to get however, Slovenia, Montenegro and Macedonia only gave 6 or 7 points Serbia only 5. The only other high points came from fellow Muslim country Turkey, while Azerbaijan and Albania both ignored the song completely. Diaspora votes in Austria and Switzerland may explain their points for Bosnia. In the West, North and East, the song was completely ignored.

Who voted for Ireland?

Just like last year, Jedward were most popular in Northern Europe. The problem this year was that the support even in this region was way below the levels of 2011. The only high points for Ireland came from the United Kingdom. The rest of the “middle points” came from the Netherlands and Belgium and from the Scandinavian countries Sweden, Denmark, Iceland and Finland. Also Latvia was generous to Jedward. Apart from Croatia, Belarus and Azerbaijan the song didn’t get a single point in East, South and Central Europe.

Who voted for Iceland?

Iceland got its highest points from Estonia (which voting-vise is officially a Scandinavian country in ESC), Finland and Denmark. Low points from Norway, Spain, Slovenia, Slovakia and Germany can be added to the score. In Germany we already know that these points were given due to the jury.

Who voted for Malta?

Surprisingly, Malta got most of its points from Eastern Europe. 8 points from Azerbaijan, 7 or 6 points from Lithuania, Ukraine and Serbia, plus 3 to 1 points from Turkey, Macedonia and Belarus. The only votes from Western Europe came from former colonial power United Kingdom.

Who voted for France?

Switzerland and Iceland’s 6 points saved France from its first last place ever. Austria, Latvia, Bosnia and Sweden also had some points for Anggun.

Who voted for Denmark?

The Danish could not count on their Scandinavian friends too much this time. Still, the highest points (5 or 4) came from Finland and Iceland. Furthermore, there seems to be a small new axis in Eurovision: Germany and Denmark. Lower marks came from Estonia (see they are Scandinavian) , Norway and Italy.

Who voted for Hungary?

8 points came from neighbors Slovakia, 7 from Romania and 3 to 1 points from Turkey, Moldova and neighbors Serbia.

Who voted for the UK?

Well, few countries actually. Estonia, Latvia, Belgium and neighbors Ireland had Engelbert in their Top 10. All other countries. South, East, Central, Scandinavia completely ignored the song. To simply blame the East (as some British newspapers did) is thus more than simplifying things!

Who voted for Norway?

It doesn’t get redder than this (well, wait for Austria). Some support from Scandinavia came from Sweden (three) and Iceland (one). If we had the 3 Dutch points we arrive at Tooji’s final score of 7 points.

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