Recap of Rehearsals Day 8

Eurovision 2018 – With two weeks to go to the contest, daily rehearsals start this Sunday and of course the Eurovision Times will do its best to cover them; here’s for the second rehearsals of the finalists: pics and vids will be officially released and we get to discuss, debate, analyze, predict…

This is how it works: for each country, you can click on the country to see a full photoset, or in the picture to watch the TV footage short clip!

So that was the last rehearsals. Tomorrow, there’ll be a first run through of semifinal 1 (“dress rehearsal”) then, in the evening, the juries’ show! So stay tune!

124 comments on “Recap of Rehearsals Day 8

  1. France looked better. Love the close up of Emilie before the wide shot with the crowd. This is going to look great with the audience. I fear of where Bjorkman might place this in the first half.

    Germany staging looks so effective in camera. The song is meh for me but Michael and his LED’s are going to touch a lot of people at home and the juries. Top 10 alert?

    Italy…the vocals, lighting, camera angles, that’s all great. I also feel like the “yelling” part that could have turned off someone has been subdued. The lurics on screen…it’s a good idea but it’s too distracting. Having one or two important words pop up once in a while would be great, but littering the screen with the lyrics akes away from the overall presentation I feel.

    Nothing has really changed on the other 3 for me. I really hope Portugal gets a decent result.

    • “I fear of where Bjorkman might place this” is a sad sentence! again, I get the argument in favor of made up draw, but the fact we can openly state that a person’s personal taste will matter on the draw is a scary idea for a “fair” contest!

      • I also wonder if Italy will sing last. Since the start of the producer draws in 2013, a Big 5 has sung last 3/5 times (and 3 of last 4 times, so except 2016 where a Big 5 sung second last instead lol).

  2. As Donnie said, every year it’s the same thing with the Big5 and hapless staging. Germany makes the most of using LEDs when others can’t and that’s why the absence of LEDs is not a good idea. I feel Italy is up for one of its worst results yet. On top of everything else, strolling on the satellite stage takes away the focus from the song’s intensity. And of course nobody can bond emotionally with a song through subtitles…

    Portugal looks like she is doing some gardening which I guess is relevant with the lyrics but a little too litteral?

  3. Looking through these snippets the Most effective one seems to be Spain imo great vocals and chemistry with effective lighting. Everyone else seemed to have some problems with either the song, presentation, staging or vocals.
    UK really proved that Surie is a better singer then the song allows her to be, which is sad.
    Germany would benefit from a more serious written song considering the background.
    Italy sounded and looked pretty messy. Would be more effective if they did something on the line of France 2009 with the lyrics. Having it literally on stage then on the screen as I can’t take the lyrics seriously at this moment.
    Portugal was great vocally, but don’t know about the staging. Looked a bit weird.
    France Idk at this moment.

  4. Betting odds (to qualify) for semi 1 as we speak and just before the jury rehearsal

    1. ISR 1.02
    2. CYP 1.08
    3. CZE 1.10
    4. EST 1.11
    5. BGR 1.15
    6. GRC 1.27
    7. AUT 1.40
    8. LTU 1.60
    9. BEL 1.62
    10. ARM 1.70
    11. AZE 1.80
    12. CHE 2.10
    13. FIN 2.15
    14. BLR 2.30
    15. HRV 3.30
    16. ALB 4.50
    17. IRL 4.50
    18. FYR 6.00
    19. ISL 12.50

    Losing steam : BGR, BEL, ARM
    UP : CYP, LTU, CHE

    • It is AZE in, LTU out IMO.

      • People tend to overestimate AZE. If Greece barely made it with 12 televoting points from CYP last year, there’s no way AZE does much better in a more difficult semi. I have them as a NQ for now same as ARM?
        I believe FIN could sneak in together with LTU

        • I think that Armenia is in. Most people I showed it were really impressed. Plus, it is late in the running order.

        • We are only one day before the finals. I am not predicting 14 countries in the top 10 still. I have narrowed it down between those two. AZE is a well staged ESC pop song. LTU is the bookers fan-wank atm last moment that never qualifies. Most recent examples are ISL and FIN from the previous two years

          • LTU is much more syropy than Black Bird and Paper. This might pull the qualification trick. Plus the 24 televoting points from IRL and UK :P

      • HRV is a very interesting bet too. With a jury support same as CZE in semi last year (80p) and the basic televoting support around 30p they could still make it!

        • Wishful thinking. CZE didn’t qualify though.

          • CZE had zero televoting support and came 12th in semi overall. Croatia has a much more televoting friendly singer and 10 telepoints from Switzerland already :p

    • Croatia is ridiculously low, I’d have them in instead of Austria which does not seem to me such a sure bet anymore.

      I’d also have Azerbaijan in instead of Armenia. The song is meeh and the professional staging does not entirely save it. But Kontopoulos has plenty of jury connections as was proven with Demy (easier semi but also inferior overall package) last year.

      Switzerland and Finland will fight for it but will only get in if Greece falters (which is a possibility). Belgium should not be such a sure bet at all, especially from first half. However I think the strength of the song and the individualism of the performance will save it. After all, grimaces did not really hurt Salvador’s chances did they? Lithuania is in I believe on strength of the jury vote.

      In such a scenario only 3 pass from the second half vs.4 according to the bookies which takes as back to ARM vs. AZE or CHE/FIN vs. BEL/LTU? However in such a lopsided semi 6 or 7 from the first half is entirely possible…

    • But you are righy that Greece starts with +24 points or whereabouts, whereas Azerbaijan and Armenia start the semi with minus 24 each…

      • 24 p counts as 25% of the qualifying threshold …

        • Ιndeed. Do you see Austria in? I like the austrian song and dislike the croatian one, but from what I have seen there is no doubt in my mind on who qualifies…

          • Austria is very similar to Australia last year which got 139 jury and 21 televoting points…
            Isaiah qualified as 6th with 160 p…

            • You really believe they will have him that high? Australia also has the flag factor and keeping it in the contest considerations imo, I am not sure the juries fell in love with his less than stellar vocals…

            • Austria has flag factor going for them too (excluding Zoe’s year).

            • Austria as a country of the north-west usually provides what the juries want in terms of radio-friendly content just like Norway or the Netherlands. That’s not the same as wanting to keep a faraway broadcaster engaged in a show that broadcasts at 4am local time…

            • I believe this year the blatant jury support for Australia comes to an end. I don’t expect 170 jury points in any scenario. They can do a DNK/UK 17 most probably (70 -100 jury points max)

            • I believe this year the blatant jury support for Australia comes to an end. I don’t expect 170 jury points in any scenario. They can do a DNK/UK 17 most probably (70 -100 jury points best case)

            • Perhaps. Still they are pivotal for Eurovision’s expansion to Asia. I wonder what’s happening with that.

            • I love the performer and the song but I agree with the fact it is underwhelming live

            • I can’t tell. Waiting for the whole show on Tuesday :)

    • 8 songs for me (including Belgium of course) are 99 % locked in for Q. But then I just cannot fathom both ARM and AZE missing the final or either of them for that matter and I dont know if Lithuania has the potential to steal those places. Then we have Switzerland with a great performance and a good running order and Finland is not to be ruled out. Croatia is also in contention. The only ones I can completely rule out are Iceland and FYR Macedonia at this point. Even Ireland has an outside chance imo, same as Albania.

      This is going to be a very tough prediction.

  5. Semi 2 :

    1. NOR 1.02
    2. SWE 1.03
    3. MDA 1.12
    4. UKR 1.12
    5. AUS 1.15
    6. POL 1.30
    7. NDL 1.35
    8. DNK 1.35
    9. HUN 1.40
    10. LVA 1.60
    11. RUS 1.70
    12. ROU 2.10
    13. MLT 2.75
    14. SRB 2.90
    15. GEO 3.75
    16. MNE 4.00
    17. SVN 4.75
    18. SMR 10.00

  6. And I really suggest gamblers the #16-26 placement for AUS in the Final at 10.00 :P

  7. For the moment I’d say only FYR and ISL are the certain NQs in semi 1.

  8. They called Bulgarian diaspora to vote with this tradituonal song!!

    Black guys sing it so funny!! <3

    • The only traditional thing Bulgaria delivers is shady tactics in order to win esc as did AZE few years ago…
      I hope EBU gets them disqualified next time their jury decides to award nul points to every other trophy contender

      • What are you talking about? What bad are they doing????
        Equinox FTW!
        Veliki Turnovo 2019!! <3

      • Overtly dramatic. Not every jury had to fall over Sobral and his act really.

        • You are overprotective cause you like their songs. Not only did they ignore PRT last year but they only awarded ROU inside the top 10 which means they left outside all of BEL, SWE, ITA, HUN, MDA, NOR, AUS too…

          • Exactly, the picked the songs they thought not dangerous. I was still happy about those 12 pts to Austria though. Nathan was so happy. :)

            • The Bulgarian jury also nulled France despite being their 12p televoting-wise and a huge fan fave. As you said it, the Bulgarian jury awarded points to exactly the same songs, betting odds had among the last one night before the Grand Final (Austria, Poland, Netherlands, Israel, Greece, Belarus and Ukraine)
              Of course I don’t expect objectivity from Guitar, but numbers are there for him to double check as well!

            • Indeed. Bulgaria is doing a Malta in the 90s, and it is all out in the open.

            • It’s even worse now with betting odds showing trends before the Final. The Bulgarian jury had only to consult from the bookies and follow the guidelines by heart…
              I wish them all the worst this year! :)

          • I just don’t have anti-jury bias that’s all.

          • Oh don’t worry I hardly expect objectivity from you as well – you were never a jury fan ;)

          • Your problem here is the bulgarian jury not voting for songs you favoured and concorting all kinds of scenarios to make up for that – same as those funny “journalist” – fans asking such questions to the BNT representatives. You are aware I am dealing with statistics as well and you don’t have a case here simply because you base your results on 1 single year as sample.

            I don’t expect an apology if the bulgarian jury votes differently this year but hey I will have won yet another bet :)

            Anyway as I said anti-jury bias is a thing and has blurred the objectivity of many people around here. Televoting is a sacred cow for whatever reasons to many people and the other 50 % has to pay for everything aka the overscrutinized analysis and bias. I have learned a long time ago not to expect objectivity but come on it gets kinda funny after a certain point. Cheers !

            • I just want to clarify 3 things cause you probably enjoy twisting stuff when things don’t go your way.

              1. It has nothing to do with my personal 2017 favorites as I clearly didn’t support Australia last year (nor Moldova)
              2. I was not talking negatively about juries in general, I was pointing out the obvious : Bulgarian jury voting for songs that were in betting odds’ bottom 15, leaving behind EVERY single contender or fan fave. You fail to see it, your problem, not mine.
              3. Hopefully they have learnt after the harsh critisizing the national broadcaster received and they will vote for the songs they like the best, especially now they are not considered as a contender anymore :-*

            • Not considered a contender by whom ? Betting odds ? Please.
              You and me both know his does bit mean much nowadays.

              I have no problem really. As I said I dont judge biases – they are what they are. Its not the first time you would be hostile towards jury vote and I would defend it.

              Lets hope televoting one day learns to vote for the songs they like most not just in Bulgaria but everywhere – I doubt it but hope dies last :-)

              P.S. what does it mean that “things dont go my way” ? Do you really think I care what odds or esc press say ? They have lost all shreds of credibility the last 2-3 years – if you cannot see why this is your problem not mine.

            • A contender by almost everyone. as i already said (you don’t want to read), they only voted for the bottom 15 songs in betting odds…

            • There has been quite a few voting trends and EBU has settled DQ criteria if they fail to meet some standards as you know (see Montenegro and Georgia a few years ago etc). If they thought the bulgarian jury vote was suspect they would have acted. That said Moldova was not a favourite till the very last moment as far as I remember (during the actual live show that is).

            • exactly ! Jury travesties are more than one. I’m glad you agree. But BGR voting every other contender down (by universal standars as proved by the actual 2017 top 10) tops my list by far!

            • I did not say I agree. Quite the opposite. I have been critical of the overt scrutiny of jury vote compared to televoting which is free roaming mostly – and you seem to support and turn a blind eye to its problems.

            • Let’s see if Russia gets eliminated this year and how much televoting support they will get first and then we will agree

            • So we have to wait for one result this year to see televoting biases ? Interesting.

            • Didn’t Ukraine end bottom 5 last year?

            • You know how it goes – exceptions tend to confirm the rule rather than disprove it.

              And lets not forget the history of jury bashing – it began as “juries disfavor non english songs” – then they vote for Sobral among others and that goes to the shelf. Now we are at “juries have e.g. pro australian bias”.

              We’ll see how things go. It will only add to the statistics in each case.

            • Didn’t Greece fail to qualify in 2016 as well?

            • You are doing exactly what I said when it comes to cherry picking exceptions.

              Lets take Switzerland this year and take as reference betting odds for once. If this was the russian or greek entry wouldnt be a dead certain Q ? If the russian entry was the irish entry would it be considered still a borderline Q/NQ or an outright NQ ?

            • I can use several other examples same as you. It doesn’t prove anything.
              The question you make about RUS vs IRL is totally irrelevant of final results as we all know that people who bet do take country’s history in consideration.
              That doesn’t prove that RUS can’t qualify this year…

            • And why do they ? Because it is a major factor. They may be totally unreliable the last few years but this factor rightly plays a role because it does play a major role in esc itself.

            • Australia is high in betting odds every year for the same reasons too.
              Because juries overhype them as well. I wonder why you cherry pick only the televoting favorites…

            • Australia is possibly high because it takes it seriously and delivers though ?
              And at some point we should address how this whole supposed australian jury conspiracy takes place – for 3 years now different jurors with no non musical motive to vote for Australia (regional political or other) collectively decide they will favour Australia regardless of whether they deserve it ? Does the EBU give them some under the table directive ? And out of all these jurors not one came forward to talk about this if it is happening ? Then the EBU is truly a criminal mastermind :-P

              Because televoting favourites have traceable characteristics and rational explanations. Romanians living in Italy do not need coordination or directives to vote for Romania – their bias is traceable. In the case of Australia what is this traceable characteristic ? None really.

            • “Australia is possibly high because it takes it seriously and delivers”

              Same applies to Russia and to a much bigger extent as they do send their biggest names. Australia keeps sending their C list artists so what you initially stated about them trying too hard is not true actually!
              You see? For every argument you make there’s also the other side of the coin you are not willing to take into consideration

  9. If Macedonia stays in semis, I’m afraid it is the last time they take part at esc…. :(

    • They will stay in semi. It’s totally doomed in betting odds!

    • I fear so too. They had a chance to qualify last year and this year but then they messed up the staging. :(

      • They have exactly the same number of qualifications in the semi era as the Netherlands. 5 q and 9 nq.

        • I guess that the identification with ESC is higher in the Netherlands because they have participated since 1956. Plus, the Dutch entries have been quite successful recently.

          • It is quite telling that in the Yugoslavian years there were contributions from Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Bosnia-H and Montenegro (once), but never from Macedonia. So even in their own country they were very unsuccessful.

    • I am certain they will never leave Eurovision just like they didn’t this year despite anouncing it at first. If it simply had to do with results they ‘d be gone a long time ago.

  10. To win Cyprus all green at #4, Norway red at #3.
    This evening Cyprus will be third.

  11. I need everyone’s help. In PB’s comment section there is a lot of hype regarding the German entry, including talk of top 10 or even top 5. I don’t see that at all atm but perhaps I only need a reality check. What do you think? (“yoooouuu think?” in Wiwi style …)

    • Top 10?! A definite ‘no’ from me. I quite like it, and he’s lovely but I just don’t see it grabbing enough viewers to pick up the phone on the night or scoring highly with the juries either.

    • I liked it when I first heard it..still think that it is the best after France among Big5+Portugal but I don’t think it can make a Top10

    • No way Germany will enter the top 10. Maybe top 15 if he is very lucky.

    • It has Austria 17 written all over it.

    • As I wrote here I found the short clip we have seen manipulative but very effective. The fact that he sings about something that touches him personally also makes the emotion seem more genuine to the average viewer, even though it’s basically reality TV. Top10 can’t be excluded in my opinion.

    • I’d say a top 10 is as possible as a Maltese Q

    • No help from me. Germany has a real chance to get in the top 10 imo. Relatable, contemporary and very well performed.

    • Good question. It won’t come last. As far as I am concerned, it’s a type of ballad which is quite popular these years. I won’t rule out a place between 6th and 10th place, but the most likely scenario is probably somewhere between 11 and 20.

    • Top-12 is definitely a possibility for Germany.An almost certain jury top-10 and i think his Performance will also move televoters too.

  12. By the way, what is today’s program? Isn’t there a dress rehearsal right now? I don’t think any of the usual sites has a youtube livestream right now.

  13. Thanks for the replies. :)

  14. We have just taken a photo of Aisel.

  15. Just found out that Franka’s rehearsal clip is 4th in total views among first semi clips behind Israel, Cyprus and Greece and ahead of Czechia. One more argument about bookies being totally blind to her real chances. 6. EST 7. FIN 8.BLG 9. BLR 10. FYR. Bulgaria looks to be in trouble…

    It should be noted that no second semi clip has reached the views of the top6 from 1st semi (Russia with 160k is only a little ahead of Finland while Norway only has 118k – could it be that online Rybak haters are on to something and he will bomb?)

    • * BLG is Bulgaria, not Belgium which is much lower. That’s not a good omen for doing another Blanche..

      • These are all factors that wont decide the result in any way though – views on rehearsal clips. Most of these views are local in most cases. Or else if this is a criterion Spain will win by a huge margin in the televote followed by Poland for example or something.

        The only thing that will decide it are tonight’s and tomorrow’s performances at 21:00 CET.

        • YT views in general are a good indication of televoting patterns if you purge them of hightened interest among certain countries (eg Greece or Spain). Croatia’s numbers can not be justified coming from her country – there’s clearly something there. Austria looks doomed and Bulgaria will be saved by juries based on these numbers.

          • What did you expect from Guitar. Anything indicating a low score for BEL doesn’t deserve any attention :P

            • You are free to believe that, I am free to justify my opinion as I did in a very objective manner :) As I pointed out the other day browsing through last year’s comments I ended up being right on this case though.

            • The thing is I support her. It is the most individualistic performance…

            • I support here too. It’s just a prediction game

          • But these are rehearsal videos – we will know more on the actual performance videos that will be uploaded tomorrow after the semi – charting will also be an indication.

          • Oh and Croatia’s numbers can be justified – she is a big star in her country and a local favourite to represent them for years. Austria never garnered a lot of views on their performances let alone their rehearsals.

            Anyway it seems factual analysis is not welcome anymore because people get panicked by argumentation and call you “biased” now. It’s understandable.

            • Perhaps but Croatia is a small country and not particularly crazy about ESC.

            • But my point is it has less to do with esc and more with the fact it is Franka. Apart from the standard ones (Spain and Poland come to mind) views fluctuate based on tge entrants popularity as well. E.g. I cannot imagine it is the same for Greece when it is Sakis Rouvas and Freaky Fortune for example.

            • I think Greece will always get high views if people are interested in the song like this year, even though nobody knew her before. With Croatia I was not expecting that interest, especially since the bookies don’t consider her a contender.

    • You think Bulgaria wont qualify?!?!?? :O
      Dont be silly..its by far the best composition this year..if that happens there is no place for me in that crapy festival anymore ….

  16. But of course one can argue that the performances of Norway, Sweden and Estonia have been around for months and nothing is gained by watching those rehearsals unlike with the entire top5 of semi1 and Russia. Which is why the numbers for Bulgaria look especially weak.

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