105 Comments

Latest Eurovision Betting Odds


Eurovision 2018 – We’ve now seen the majority of this year’s Eurovision acts perform live at one of the preview parties, and the betting odds have been shifting a little after the live vocals and stage performances. See who has gone up and down in the betting odds after this week… 

Here’s the latest from Oddschecker who monitor all the main different betting sites and come up with averages:

Key: Best Odds in Bold and Underlined, blue is going down, pink is going up.

105 comments on “Latest Eurovision Betting Odds

  1. Bit harsh on Switzerland imo, and Poland will do much better.

  2. Lol at the “genious” gambler who encourages people to bet on AZE as a winner :P
    Last year he failed twice by suggesting BGR as the winner and NLD as a top 10

    • Well he wasn’t too far in either of those predictions actually – one place off for each. But yes AZE as a winner as a promoted bet is a stretch.

    • Big lol, yes. Of all countries AZE and with that song?

  3. Although I don’t think anyone beyond the top 15 + Ukraine will actually bother the actual top 10, the changes there will be drastic as things kick in. Bulgaria’s live performances have given it a huge momentum and with Israel seeming less and less like a winner with the live performances provided, there will be a rush from the rest of the well performing entries in the bets I think. Estonia loses momentum because Elina has not been around the promo tour I think, while Mikolas maintains momentum by being everywhere. But pre-parties won’t decide the result, same why the perception of a part of the fanbase about Sennek’s performance influencing odds now won’t rattle the final result either. Sweden will perform much better as well – with those values grabbing a winner bet on Sweden right now seems like a bargain to me.

  4. What are the stars for?

  5. Belgium keeps dropping and it will even more so after rehearsals start. Their obsession with combining stellar big songs with mousy amateur singers comes with price tag. They probably don’t want to win.

    The winner is in top 6. At the moment my money’s on Bulgaria.

  6. In other wiwi news,
    Current Scores & Ranking :

    1. Estonia 7.67
    2. FYROM 7.58
    3. Ukraine 7.47
    4. Netherlands 7.28
    5. Azerbaijan 7.22
    6. Italy 7.17
    7. Germany 6.75 NEW
    8. Slovenia 6.58
    9. Serbia 6.50
    10. Switzerland 6.50
    11. Latvia 6.47
    12. Armenia 6.39
    13. Poland 6.36
    14. Belarus 6.36
    15. Malta 6.31
    16. Croatia 6.19
    17. Denmark 6.17
    18. Moldova 6.08
    19. UK 5.97
    20. Lithuania 5.83
    21. Ireland 5.67
    22. Norway 5.44
    23. Montenegro 5.19
    24. Romania 4.94
    25. Georgia 4.86 NEW

  7. INFE | Avustralya’nın oyları #Australia

    12 Polonya 🇵🇱
    10 Finlandiya 🇫🇮
    8 Kıbrıs 🇨🇾
    7 Yunanistan 🇬🇷
    6 Fransa 🇫🇷
    5 Çek Cumhuriyeti 🇨🇿
    4 Bulgaristan 🇧🇬
    3 Estonya 🇪🇪
    2 Makedonya 🇲🇰
    1 Azerbaycan 🇦🇿

  8. France is building a momentum I fail to understand tbh..it’s such a nice, mild song, but too mild to see it as a winner..
    And lol at Spain being 11th favourite to win..they’ll be lucky enough if they enter top20 at final night imo..also on Bulgaria winning I hate to say I believe it’s possible, but seems like a nightmare to me, lol 😑

  9. hm, I don’t see Estonia and Australia as winners from the top countries. Also, “winner” bets are not the same as “Top 10″… in 2011 Italy was one before last in winner bet, which wasn’t “wrong” since it did not win, but look where it ended!

  10. Oh, and my personal bet on who has the most chances to win would be the following four in no particular order:
    Israel, Italy, Norway, Sweden.

    • (A last comment here, I forgot my justification lol)
      Israel: Netta is Gabbani of 2018. She has to give a stellar vocal performance and she’ll be in it to win it imo.
      Italy: It carries a strong message, which I think will have a stronger impact than France’s f.e., at grand final.
      Norway: We all know Alexander Rybak is hella charismatic performer. Besides, we need a fun song to win after 2 consecutive years of more sophisticated winners.
      Sweden: All in all, what I wrote about Rybak stands for Benjamin as well.

      • We seem to agree a lot. :)

      • I can’t see Norway and Sweden, especially the first troubling the contenders’ department. Israel and Italy might get there though along with Bulgaria.

        • On Norway, I may be a bit biased since it’s my no1, but I still think Rybak can make it.
          Italy and Israel aren’t among my personal favourites, they look like frontrunners to me though. But Italy is too low on the bets, no?

          • Yes, Italy it is quite low but Ukraine more or less was in the same position when it won in 2015.

  11. I think it is due time to say a thank you from my part to both belgian broadcasters for investing not only in great songs but showcasing the true talent of young, sophisticated performers. A true breath of fresh air to have people like Loic, Blanche and Laura in esc and their vocal abilities and deliveries. A victory is well overdue and it is imo closer than ever. Hopefully other countries will be inspired by that as well.

  12. A female folk and pop singer and member of the Cosmic Voices will accompany Equinox on stage in Lisbon.

  13. Atm, the to qualify odds are more interesting than the to win odds imo. I don’t have a clue when it comes to SF 2. I think that Australia, Hungary, The Netherlands and Sweden are safe, and I fear that Denmark and Norway will make it too. Beyond that I don’t see any obvious finalists. Let’s add Ukraine and Moldova, which leaves 2 slots. Latvia might get significant support from the juries … and then I’ll give the 10th slot to Montenegro because hope dies last. LOL

  14. Betting odds for SF1 qualifiers:

    Israel 1/33
    Bulgaria 1/10
    Czech Republic 1/10
    Estonia 1/10
    Greece 1/8
    Armenia 3/10
    Austria 3/10
    Belgium 1/3
    Cyprus 4/11
    Azerbaijan 1/2
    Finland 17/20
    Lithuania 10/11
    Belarus 11/10
    Ireland 13/8
    Switzerland 15/8
    FYR Macedonia 5/2
    Croatia 10/3
    Albania 19/5
    Iceland 12/1

    • Makes sense imo.

    • Today some Countries changes position:1

      1
      Israel Netta Barzilai – Toy
      1/50 1/50 1/33 1/50 1/33 1/25
      2
      Czech Republic Mikolas Josef – Lie To Me
      1/13 3/43 1/11 1/13 1/13 3/43
      3
      Estonia Elina Nechayeva – La Forza
      1/8 1/10 1/7 1/8 1/8 2/9
      4
      Bulgaria Equinox – Bones
      1/7 1/6 1/7 1/7 1/10 1/5
      5
      Greece Yianna Terzi – Oniro Mou
      1/7 1/6 1/7 1/7 1/8 1/5
      6
      Belgium Sennek – A Matter of Time
      1/4 1/4 3/10 1/4 3/8 4/9
      7
      Cyprus Eleni Foureira – Fuego
      1/3 2/5 1/3 1/3 3/8 1/5
      8
      Austria Cesár Sampson – Nobody But You
      2/5 3/10 2/5 2/5 3/10 1/2
      9
      Armenia Sevak Khanagyan – Qami
      2/5 2/5 2/5 2/5 1/3 4/9
      10
      Azerbaijan Aisel – X My Heart
      2/3 3/5 3/5 2/3 5/9 3/4
      11
      Finland Saara Aalto – Monsters
      6/7 9/10 9/10 6/7 6/7 1/1
      12
      Lithuania I. Zasimauskaitė – When We’re Old
      1/1 9/10 1/1 1/1 9/10

  15. Betting odds for SF2 qualifiers:

    Australia 1/25
    Sweden 1/20
    Ukraine 1/14
    Norway 1/12
    Netherlands 1/7
    Poland 2/7
    Denmark 2/5
    Moldova 2/5
    Russia 2/5
    Latvia 1/2
    Romania 4/6
    Hungary 5/6
    Serbia 6/5
    Montenegro 13/8
    Malta 11/5
    Georgia 13/5
    Slovenia 11/4
    San Marino 8/1

  16. …”We’re only here for a minute,come on!Who are they to tell me i can’t be a pop star,i can’t dress like a pop star,sing Adele,sing Aretha Franklin.I believe people should go about and do what their hearts tell them and not what society tells them they should do.This is the message.And i don’t have to talk about it.I just have to go up there and sing and dance and move my butt”….
    Netta Barzilai is a beautiful creature inside out.

  17. I was away for a few days and the dust settled for a while. Having read these odds, I think that the most probable winner at this stage is Bulgaria. I am waiting for a full live rendition though to be more sure of what I am saying. It all seems rather murky in the live vocals department when it comes to Bulgaria 18. They are being very ambitious and having so many people performing live on stage is risky, especially when they are not a band.

    The Czech Rep. and Sweden will be fishing for the same votes and it’ll be interesting to see who wins there. Mikolas is much more natural live and on stage, whereas Benjamin has all that paraphernalia carrying him along. He may be upstaged by his own stage presentation, imo.

    Estonia is being ignored by many, but I still think that Elina and her projections (which will come to Lisbon no matter what they say) may surprise everyone.

    Israel is too out of the box to please the juries, who will vote heavily for the safe and conservative stuff – Australia, Sweden, Bulgaria and Austria.

    P.S. I – the stage will be very different from what we are used to and I wonder how the finished product will look aand work.

    P.S. II – I love the soundtrack btw. Organic, melodic and narrative, if I may say so. Luís Figueiredo knows what he is doing.

  18. Jessica says the lyrics of her song are meant to empower aboriginals in Australia.I read them once again and frankly i wouldn’t be able to tell if she hadn’t mentioned it. :P

  19. I have just realized that Mélovin looks a bit like Dustin the Turkey in the official recap video. :)

  20. Thought I’d chime in with some thoughts here…

    For me, I see the most winner potential in Israel, Sweden, and Bulgaria. All have potential significant flaws though that could prevent it to win. Seeing the crowd reactions at these preview parties, and the general buzz around it, I think Israel is the clear televote winner in May. People will say its’ Italy 17 all over again; the buzz around “Occidentali’s Karma” was more existent in the bubble imo, while it seems like “Toy” is crossing lines into the casual audience that eventually decides the winner. I do think it is a more modern tune that most juries will appreciate, and I do think the topic the song talks about makes it a modern-day anthem. But I worry that its’ sounds and general melody are more suited for Eastern European juries, and may struggle with the Western/Nordic juries. This is where Sweden comes in. I really think this could very well be the jury winner in the Final. From there, its’ easy to see Ingrosso (and the song itself) has more appeal to the public than Bengtsson did. What could happen with those two is Sweden winning the jury vote, Israel winning the televote, but maybe neither get the vaunted Top 3 in the other vote, meaning neither can win.

    That is where Bulgaria could do a Ukraine 2016, by finishing 2nd in both votes. The track is modern, anthemic, and dark yet hopeful, and the harmonies do work together. I worry though about two things with Bulgaria: how the televote will perceive the edginess of the act (especially Zhana), and how the stage show will work. If the staging is too dark, it could fall more to an Azerbaijan 2017 result. They need the right balance like Bulgaria found with “Beautiful Mess”.

    I think there are a couple of countries that could move into that list though: France, Italy, and Australia specifically. I think both France/Italy could suffer a lower Top 10 position with the juries though, and I doubt Australia will have very high appeal with the televote. I think the other countries worth putting some money on (if you are the betting type of person haha) is Hungary (to qualify), Norway (to finish Top 5), Ireland (to qualify), Latvia (to qualify), and Netherlands (to finish Top 5).

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