836 Comments

ETSC 7 – Prediction Game


ETSC – Every year, the summer is the calm after the storm so it’s the perfect time to resume the highly anticipated the Eurovision Times Song Contest! 42 of you entered for the July 2017 edition and the voting went on for ten days! The results are coming this Friday!

After a first round open for people to sign up with a country and send a song, we got 42 people in. In the meantime, to keep us busy, I made a random draw. I also made personal postcards for each entry which will be revealed along with the songs. You can click on the picture below to listen to the songs again:

Results will come in shortly. In the meantime, we get to gossip and predict, and discuss songs more openly as nothing more is at stake. And I drop hints!

Now time for the prediction game! It was first started in ETSC 4 “hint” article and back then I wrote this: “We can play a guessing game, people wishing to participate can post a “prediction” top 10 and I’ll award points based on the countries that are in the actual top 10 and predicted in yours accorddingly. I wont reveal the results until after the voting and winner is announced, but we’d get an extra side bet to care about ;)” In the end, a good 15 people or so played and Donnie was the winner, though no one predicted Austria to win or France to be runner-up. The prediction game was again open for ETSC 5, which was won by Nick P!

However the game took a very serious turn in ETSC 6, where I put it all in an excel to keep track of everyone’s prediction and the overall predicted results. This is what we got:

PREDICTED TOP TEN CORRECT TOP TEN
1  UK (4) 1  Denmark (4)
2  France (3) 2  Spain (3)
3  Spain (2) 3  France (2)
4  Denmark (1) 4  UK (1)
5  Finland (5) 5  Finland (5)
6  Greece (14) 6  Germany (9)
7  Israel (7) 7  Israel (7)
8  Norway (13) 8  Bosnia & Herzegovina (15)
9  Germany (6) 9  Belgium (10)
10  Belgium (9) 10  Estonia (16)

This edition was won by a landslide by Donnie! So he’s a two-time champion and he’s back! You can see though that 8/10 were predicted correctly, with the full Top 5 predicted right (though in almost reverse order); two countries were even predicted at the right place too! Two mistakes, the “infamous” Greece and Norway being the two overrestimated countries each time. They did come close to our Top 10! Bosnia and Estonia were predicted a bit lower, 15th and 16th, than their final result. So don’t underestimate all genre of music has its place in ETSC Top 10!

Let’s do it again. Until the reveal begin, you can put a top 10 prediction in order (since most people predict the same 8 or so songs, it would be better to have an order so that thanks to mathematics, we do get someone who was “closer” to the final results). There is an extra big bonus if you guess ALL 10 songs right whatever the order!  I’ll award points accordingly and announce the winner along with the revealing of ETSC 8 logo! If you feel like revealing predictions on the comment section is too much info, you can do it by email. However, as all votes are in, you dont need to worry affecting votes, just maybe people’s interpretation of your predictions (but we’re all esc fans and know predictions aren’t our own rankings!) This is a second crown to grab, good luck everyone!

HINTS *spoilers*

And here are the hints and the gossips! You shouldn’t read them if you want the reveal to be a complete surprise. It’s true also that, while I try not to reveal much, as the reveal starts, and say around 10 votes in, it could be easier to guess the full display with the hints considering the votes already cast. Though there will be some surprises in the last few votes… I will try to say less than usual, unless you want me to, but then it will be in the comment section.

  • If we take that there’s 42 of us and that therefore one could have gotten from 41 people max, that means the average is 20.5 people! And two entries have gotten more than half of the people voting for it!
  • A record 23 different countries got at least one 12pts! Only one song from the top 12 didn’t get a single one! The record this edition is 4 times (for two different countries)!
  • Out of 42, only 3 did not vote for at least one song from top 3, and six people voted for the entire top3! Also seven people voted for four songs in the Top 5 but only one for the full Top 5!
  • More than 3 HoDs will get their first Top 10 in ETSC (but how many?)… However, there’s at least 1 HoD who’s already been in the Top 10 in it as well!
  • Now for a big hint, read it only if you dare, half of the Top 10 is within 14 songs from one another (a third of the draw)!
  • Fun facts: one HoD has the Top 2 as his 11th and 12th! Another one has them 1st and 2nd!

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836 comments on “ETSC 7 – Prediction Game

  1. When you are on a no-points streak.

  2. CROATIA Dobra večer! May we introduce ourselves, we are Luka & Stjepan – also known by our stage name 2Cellos. We are honored and humbled to have been chosen as the spokespersons of the Croatian jury. We are impatiently waiting for the show to begin. Good luck to everyone and may the best song win! :) http://www.2cellosfanclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/I_Will_Wait_2CELLOS.png

  3. After seeing the new hints I reconsidered a bit so here’s my final prediction:

    1.Sweden
    2.France
    3.Belgium
    4.Lebanon
    5.Denmark
    6.Serbia
    7.Netherlands
    8.Israel
    9.Spain
    10.Finland

    Others with some good chances too:
    11.Moldova
    12.Bosnia
    13.Estonia
    14.Azerbaijan
    15.UK

  4. Listening to the songs yet again!!!

    My top18 made it to my playlist.

    I’m so sad about the songs from #15-12, and especially #11 :( :( :(

  5. off/on topic: has it been decided whether ETSC8 will be a blind edition or not? :)

  6. Here we go… my predictions:

    1st – France
    2nd – Denmark
    3rd – Norway
    4th – Sweden
    5th – Netherlands
    6th – Israel
    7th – Lebanon
    8th – United Kindgom
    9th – Spain
    10th – Moldova

    Really tough one tbh…

  7. The Italian entry, for some reason, sort of brings to my mind the so called “Italodisco” era :)
    Sth like this f.i.

  8. half of the Top 10 is within 14 songs from one another (a third if the draw)!

    What does it mean by “a third if the draw”??

  9. I will not change my prediction as this already featured 4 ppl who have never been in top10 before.

    • Is anyone predicting countries that have never been in the top 10 before?

      • I don’tthink so.

        • I don’t think so either. The popular countries rule the predictions.

          • But will they rule the voting too?

            • Everyone seems to think so; they will most certainly dominate the top 5. Serbia is the only not so popular chance with a chance to break that trend. We’ll see.

          • I hope u supported the unpopular ones. The debut countries to be more specific.

            • I don’t even know which are the debut countries. I voted for songs that that rang a bell so to speak. lol

              Did you support the unpopular countries?

          • I am the most unpopular country, so I have done my bit- debut/Jordan.

            The ratio of languages is 8-2 for anything non-English, whilst I supported 6 “unpopular countries”.

            However, I never rank with these two concepts in my mind.

  10. Is Michos still in Skopelos, btw? :)

  11. Is it DST now in Europe? I have to set an alarm to wake me up for the reveal

  12. Totally off topic.
    What a fantastic day it has been in my all time favorite reality soap series The White House. I just can’t get enough of it and I just love this new character Scaramucci (is he realated to Scaramuccia?!)! Am I here only one who is obsessed with this series? I find it extremely funny and witty with very dark undertones. I have totally lost interest to other tv shows. The White House rules! They have very interesting and contemporary take on social media too. It kind of lives life of it’s own and fill in the gaps. I’ve always loved American tv and must say that this is one of the all time best!

  13. Hey, is anyone willing to guess my top 3? Maybe 3D gurus with their fancy voting wisdom would like to have a go? Dino? Dimi? Donnie? (Not in particular order)

  14. Prediction time:

    1.France
    2.Sweden
    3.Denmark
    4.Serbia
    5.Netherlands
    6.Belgium
    7.Lebanon
    8.Azerbaijan
    9.Norway
    10.UK

    With a big chance: Israel,Iceland,Spain,B&H

  15. So my revised prediction:

    1.France
    2.Sweden
    3.Denmark
    4.Netherlands
    5.Serbia
    6.Belgium
    7.Lebanon
    8.Israel
    9.Spain
    10.Italy

    Just missing out: Moldova,Azerbaijan,UK,B&H

  16. Talk about self-aggrandizement!
    Morgan, could you remove the double 😃

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