76 Comments

Latest Betting Odds


eurovision ebu 150Eurovision 2015 – After last night’s first semi-final performances and results, how have the betting odds changed? We take a look at the latest odds from the bookmakers via Oddschecker.com to see if there have been any big winners or losers…

Sweden and Italy still lead at the top of the betting odds, Sweden at about 9/4 and Italy at 7/2. Russia have climbed into 3rd place at 11/4.

Serbia have climbed a little after last night’s successful performance.

betting odds

 

76 comments on “Latest Betting Odds

  1. Literally like 20 mins ago Russia was in 2nd, just checked it definitely Italy now, I think that to do with their 2nd rehearsal and placing in the 2nd half of the final!

    I think it all comes down to now whether Mans gets 1st half or 2nd half. While yes its possible to win from the first half (Conchita did it last year) we all know its a lot harder, and that the 2nd half is preferable!

  2. We are 11th LOL!

  3. Italy recovered its 2nd place with just the rehearsal? I wonder where Il Volo will be after their live performance on Saturday.

    • Italy wins IMO.

      • Depends if Mans gets put in the first half then yes I’d agree with you.
        If he’s in the 2nd half then I think it will be a close fight but Mans will just edge it

        • Mans depends on his gimmicks, song-wise his effort is mediocre :p ”Grande amore” is more remarkable.

        • Max, people will most probably remember the gimmick when it comes to voting for Sweden and the vocals when it comes to do the same for Italy. It will be close, indeed, but I hope that Italy wins.

          P.S. – I hope that Belgium wins, but am I asking for too much? Perhaps.

    • In fairness they’ve only marginally improved from 4 to 3.75 and that’s probably because of the running order draw more than the rehearsal.

      They’ve not leapt over Russia, just Russia is starting to fall back as the hype dies down.

      • As long as the million voices do not win, it’s fine by me.

        • Signed and agreed!!! 100% if Russia gets anywhere near to the top spot all allegiances are out the window and its all about cheering on whoever is best placed to beat them, (even if its Hungary!)

          • I am framing my comment more on a musical perspective, Max. I’ve always thought Russia 15 is sterile, hollow and pompous stuff, I am glad that there we no boos during Polina’s performance. I

            • No one booed the twins last year, they only started booing when Russia went through to the final (they booed the word Russia) but this year couldn’t even do that as the qualifiers were being announced like rapid fire!

              Also people have short memories, and LGBT rights and Ukrainian lives were so 2014, no one cares about them now.

            • I always try not to mix politics with ESC, except with it comes to ESC politics.

            • But the esc is a political event it always has been. The very idea of bringing Europe together after the war, is a political idea in itself.

              And I think its entirely fair to question are the EBU going to host the Eurovision in a country that is currently at war with another former ESC country, and has harsh strict laws in place that would jail the majority of its fans, or let them be beaten or killed?

            • You have the right to have your say. We have to agree to disgaree.

            • I disagree completely with that statement Max. They are not going to throw dancing guys covered in glitter in jail in Sochi, not gonna happen. Would be dreadful news stories.

              The law in Russia is about promoting gay literature etc to minors, isn’t it? It’s more liberal than the shit we had here in the UK not so long ago under section 28, which was about promoting it to adults too! We aint much further forward, believe you me! Only a decade ahead.

              Secondly Russia is not completely intolerant, and homosexuality is de-criminilised and accepted much more now.

              In Sochi for the Olympics the law was put aside completely for competitors and spectators. It would be the same for Eurovision.

              No it aint perfect, the situation with Ukraine sucks, but the sweeping generalisations and belief in the anti-Russian propaganda by the West needs intense scrutiny. No country is perfect. If you start moaning about an individual law you don’t like in a country, you’d never go anywhere.

              Gay fans should go with their heads held high if Russian wins, proud to be out, and help change peoples attitudes more over there. Boycotts achieve f*** all imo.

              Eurovision is all about equality, being BBFs with all our Euro neigbours etc. We need to go to any country and party and make the world a better place for all via it where we can.

            • No, the protest this year was a bit more effective https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFcdap-WgAA7pHS.jpg

            • I noticed that image earlier to day, when I watched the semi.

  4. Regarding youtube views Russia has already more than 200000, while Serbia and Belgium have more than 100000. Could those 3 be the televoting top 3 yesterday? Hungary on the contrary has very few views compared to the other 9 qualifiers, maybe they qualified thanks to the juries?

    • Yes I think we all know Hungary qualified thanks to Jurors.

      As for youtube views it doesn’t count at all, all her views are likely from Russia itself (who can’t vote for her) soviet countries not in the esc (Ukraine, kazakstan, uzbekistan she’s charting well in) and other soviet countries who can vote for her, but we all knew she’d get 12 from anyway, ie Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, who can’t give her more than 12, even if she breaks the Vevo/youtube record!

    • Russia and Belgium do make sense. But Serbia? grrr

  5. The Serbia surge is really puzzling to me. I expect to see it slip back a bit after the semis tomorrow. It’ll probably be passed by the likes of Norway and Azerbaijan which are just behind it, and Iceland. (And of course whatever country somehow manages to grab people’s attention…)

    Personally, more telling were the countries that DROPPED despite qualifying from the first semi. Almost all countries remained steady or moved up the rankings, whether through their own odds improving, or by default (as countries above them were eliminated), but Albania and Armenia both dropped. (I suspect Armenia being drawn in the first half didn’t help, but Albania doesn’t have that excuse.)

  6. Romania is at 1010/1 lol

  7. Belgium has just moved up ever so slightly to #9.

    I fully expect Serbia to slip behind (at the very least) Norway and Azerbaijan, and possibly Slovenia, after tomorrow. I expect a bit of movement after tonight’s jury show, too.

  8. The odds really puzzle me. Estonia’s odds are drifting today significantly while they were excellent last night And Loic cannot make a breakthrough and Serbia does it while it charts NOWHERE around Europe.
    Russia charting in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is not really relevant to esc as well…

    • Friday in 2011, France was first, Azerbaijan second and Italy dead last of all finalists. So, really…

      • The difference though is that France and Italy do not have a live performance before Saturday, the semi finalists do and the odds react at these performances (pretty accurately usually as last year showed).

  9. Ugh I hate to get political now but I guess we have to since we have to prepare for heading to Russia next year most likely. Whoever believes that the situation in Russia is anything close to “tolerant” towards minorites in general (especially sexual minorities) is in for a rough wake up as soon as they step on russian soil.
    I won’t be saying “I told you so” if the euroclub for example is raided by far right thugs who work with the blessings of the police force. And that’s a best case scenario I can think.
    In 2009 things were already bad with the violent reaction of the police towards gay rights activists and many artists threatening not to go on stage after that. And that was at a time when things were much better and there was no law in place.

    All this naive logic “it’s all a big party and we will party as a diverse crowd with our russian friends” is not just utopic it is utterly irresponsible and puts actual human lives in danger.

    On top of that Russia will use the contest as a full on propaganda machine (they already do it 3 years now with their songs – this year being the ultimate hypocrist) to showcase itself as inclusive etc, something even more dangerous as it will in stark contrast with the reality.

    An esc in Russia would be dangerous, potentially violent and would stain the contest forever and bring it years back. It is unfortunate that it looks very likely it will happen at this time.

    I will be honestly boycotting the next esc. I will not support that and it will pain me to miss esc but some things are more important.

    • There’s a Rainbow March for Human Rights in Vienna tomorrow organised by ‘To Russia With Love Austria (TRWLAT)’ to protest against human rights violations against ‘queer’ people worldwide:

      http://www.hosiwien.at/hosi-wien-unterstuetzt-regenbogenmarsch-fuer-menschenrechte/

      The situation in Russia described by ai

      https://www.amnesty.org/en/articles/news/2014/10/my-freedom-defends-yours-propaganda-and-truth-about-homophobia-russia/

      • I am well aware of all that but thank you for providing them anyway. Maybe some peopl there will bother to read amnesty’s report before they start happily packing next May for Russia.

    • I agree with everything you said, apart from the fact that it’s likely we are going to Russia, I think there’s a lot of hype a lot of froth, but it’s coming from countries already giving it 12, and the press saying oh wow look, actual western televoters will not be picking up the phone in large numbers in my opinion

      Hulluna said the UK is only a decade and that Section 28 is worse. That’s complete BS, 10 years ago, gay activists weren’t being beaten and killed and fired from their jobs or arrested in the UK.

      Section 28 meant teachers couldnt teach it in schools, and local councils werent allowed to offer help either the Russian laws actually ban any form of protest against the laws.

      There is real hate in Russia, with 70% believing homosexuality is completely unacceptable, and vast swathes of far right thugs go around attacking gay people and breaking up gay events, the BBC did a whole documentary on it with Reggie Yates.

      Russia is not a safe place to host ESC, as Guitar said, it wasn’t great in 2009 but the situation has deteriorated rapidly since then! I don’t really like the Italian song, but I will support whoever to stop Russia winning.

      They use ESC as a PR tool, last year they suffered a blood y nose as Conchita won and gave her speech and images went around the world of Russia being booed. Now the laws have been made even stricter since, and now Putin can show the world pictures of people cheering Russia on, and intimidate the LGBT community in his own country, because they will feel like they no longer have the support of the LGBT community.

      I’d rather Azerbaijan win compared to Russia (and you all know my thoughts on Azerbaijan!)

      • I agree with everything except the part about Russia not winning.Given everything I read, odds etc I believe she has it in the bag. She will start with an already huge voting base and will only need to pick some big points from the balkans and some good points from the nords (she is already charting there) plus some points from big ballad lovers (Spain, Ireland, Italy etc) and she has it in the bag.
        Who can stop her ? Probably only Sweden, I don’t even believe in Italy anymore..

        • I suppose, but after last year, I have more faith in Europe than that. (It could be dashed of course)

          They came 6th last year with an average song, and they do seem to have a better received song this year but I think that will only rise them up to 5th or 4th.

          Sweden has been in the lead since it won MF, yes it doesn’t seem to have the huge groundswell of support but neither did Denmark in 2013, which also had been in the lead since winning its NF, and then went on to win on the night too.

          At worst, I think they will come 2nd, like Azerbaijan in 2013.

    • There wouldn’t be real problems with the euroclub etc because the regime wouldn’t allow that.There will be tight security.But this is more dangerous for the ordinary Russian gays.If people from other,more democratic countries decide to turn a blind eye and pretend that it’s just a cultural thing and we should respect it and that things in Western Europe aren’t much better(really???)then what will happen to those people in Russia?

      • I don’t think the regime would care. And even if it is not the euroclub which is a close space and they could “protect” for the eyes of the foreign media, can they protect the eurovillage, any venue that might hold an esc event (and this year for example there are many) and may feature more flaboyant performances and fans ? They cannot and I doubt they would be interested in that.
        Plus how can it be said that some performances in public places such as the eurovillage would not violate their “propaganda” law ? Many countries may choose to send reactionary songs about human rights to protest that situation.
        If Conchita performs in the Eurovillage next year will it be a violation of that law for example ?
        An esc in russia would kill the spirit of the contest even if none of the above happened due to self censorship of the fans and delegations themselves.

        People saying the cute little “oh no country is perfect” thing have not lived in Russia or do not know any russians or haven’t bothered to read reports. They try to be politically correct and judge things from the safety of their own bubble.

        They are in for a rough wake up when they step foot in Russia.

        That’s why I would advise all those LGBT fans on Saturday who will be cheering for Russia and plan to attend next year’s event to think a little bit and have a reality check before they start joyfully packing their bags for esc in moscow/st petersburg or wherever.

  10. The odds are all over the place! At this point I have no clue on who’s going to win. All I hear and see are Russia, Sweden, Italy and Australia despite the fact that none of them scream “winner” IHMO.

    At this point I am all for Belgium or Estonia. From what I’ve seen in the rehearsals I am also supporting Latvia, Norway and France for the win as well.

    And yes this Serbia surge is strange. Maybe her upbeat personality sold the song? I don’t know. They could break into the Top 10 at this point.

    • “At this point I am all for Belgium or Estonia. From what I’ve seen in the rehearsals I am also supporting Latvia, Norway and France for the win as well.”

      This. I really like Sweden and Italy. But this. France blew my mind.

      • Agree! France hasn’t left my Top 10 since I first heard it months ago. It’s a calm and effective ballad with an important message. She performs it with such sincerity and class. The rehearsal performance looks great (yes to that dress change!) and I can’t wait to see it on the webcast.

        I have faith in this song, and I know it will finish in the Top 10! Go France! :-)

    • Belgium and Estonia have been my #1 and #2 of the year since all songs were chosen! So I agree with that, and i’d be happy with Latvia, Norway and Slovenia. I’d be delighted with France as my home country, but it’s not a song I really like and think we can do better and that esc 2015 can do better too!

  11. if anyone remembers: who was the favorite before the final in 2011?

  12. The Youtube battle going on. Russia still on the lead with 400000+ views, while Serbia is steadily second with 200000+ for the time being. Belgium is third with almost 200000 and Estonia, Georgia and Greece follow all with more than 100000 views.

  13. So it seems to be will 2015 be a repeat of 2011 (Italy and Sweden fight it out but an undemocratic, poor human rights former soviet country just edges it with a syrupy dull ballad.)

    Or will it be a repeat of 2013, where the Scandinavian country that has been in the lead of the betting odds the whole way, but never really got a huge level of fan support, managing to triumph anyway?

    Or it could be completely different and Italy or Australia make it to the top?

    My only concern is that it is the former USSR’s turn.
    Since the financial crash Eurovision has been awarded to rich countries in a pattern, passing it along USSR, Scaninavian, Germanic ie Russia > Norway > Germany and then repeated Azerbaijan > Sweden/Denmark > Austria

    • Definitely a 2011 repeat with votes going all over the place and countries flip-flopping positions on the scoreboard. We won’t know the winner at the beginning of the votes, but most likely somewhere around 25th-30th country we’ll have a clear winner.

      Or a 2003 repeat is possible. The last country decides the final votes and it’s a close finish!

      • Imagine if the Netherlands had given 12 points to Belgium that year and 10 to Turkey. (Instead of the other way round). I can’t remember the Belgians being mad at that time. But of course it were the years before the social media.

        • typical big diaspora era of 100% televote was broken only once in France, when we gave the 12 to Belgium in 2003 over Turkey!

          • But to be fair. Sertab’s song was huge hit in the Netherlands. While “Sanomi” was never heard of again.

            • True! The main problem was Uk and Ireland going to 100% juries and being the only two zeros to Russia. I think 100% televote that year would have given victory to Tatu… (especially how big Tatu was in those two countries)

            • Why were the UK and Ireland going for 100% juries? I didn’t know that.

            • I forgot the reason. Should I look it up?

            • Please :-)

            • This is Wikipedia, a little different than I remembered and more thourough (so apparently Turkey was still the rightful winner)… “After the contest, Russian broadcaster Channel One complained that Irish broadcaster RTÉ had used a back-up jury, and that it had cost them victory. A statement by Channel One said “Considering [the] insignificant difference in points between the first and third places, there are grounds to believe that the contest results could be much different for Russia.”[53][54] On the night of the competition, the voting polls operated by Irish telecommunications company Eircom suffered a delay in delivering the results on time, which prompted RTÉ to use the votes of the back-up jury instead.[55] The EBU cleared RTÉ of any potential wrongdoing after an investigation on the matter and stated that the rules concerning substituting the back-up jury in place of the televote were correctly applied.[55] RTÉ later published the unused results of the televote, which showed that had the jury not been used, Turkey would still have won, and Ireland’s voting “partners”, the United Kingdom, would still have no points. Russia did not receive any points from the televote, however, since Belgium only received 2 points from the Irish televote as opposed to 10 points awarded by the Irish jury, Russia would have placed second.[56]”

            • Thank you. I thought I knew about most controversies, but this is a new one.

        • I like both Belgium and Turkey that year. :-)

  14. Serbia, Iceland, France and Greece sorta don’t make sense, the others I can see why they’re there, though some are delussional (Spain for instance), they still can “make sense” as to being that high in the odds.

  15. Hey guys. All this moaning against Russia for gay human rights don’t make any sense and make me tired . I don’t support Russia in that issue but their some NATO members who are worst than Russia on homosexual rights but nobody care about this. Let’s take an example…… Albania ! You want and EU countries ? Whell.. that its Bulgaria and Romania ! Believe me Russian gays are more free than Albanian, Romanian and Bulgarian gays. I thing that west countries ( NATO ) capitalize Homosexual rights issue to make the people against Russia and that is a part of political game. And as i see they make it !

    • I think you are rather rude.

    • You should check the robust anti discrimination laws Albania has in place, some of the strongest in Europe actually. And spare me the talk about the bad west talking badly of the good Russia. I have talked with LGBT people living there (and many people who had to ask for asylum due to the situation) and I know first hand what’s the situation like.

      • I don’t care what lows says. I care how the people behave to gays ! And since Albania have strong gay lows just go to Albania and kiss your boyfriend in public area and you will see what its going to happen !

        • but the difference is albania is confronting the homophobia, rushing is actually writing it in law.

        • Well I care what laws say because when laws are established you can begin to change people’s minds, you create the foundation to change societies and that’s the direction Albania is going, the RIGHT one.
          No Albania is not the pinnacle of acceptance NOW but it lays the foundation as every country has done in the past to BECOME one.
          Russia on the other hand is going on the OPPOSITE direction.
          No, I do not expect russians to love LGBT people tomorrow but when you legislate discrimination and sent to the society the message that these people are TARGETS then you bring up the next generation with attitude towards gay people even WORSE than the one now.
          On the other hand Albania will have a next generation raised in a legal climate that sends a message of non discrimination against people based on their sexuality and that will SHOW.

          I do hope the difference is understood.

    • Ever heard of Azis, gay singer, put billboard in bulgaria of him kissing a guy. was some controversy but it stayed up, in russia he would have been beaten and jailed.

      Russia is the most homophobic country in Europe and yes some in the east are a bit behind the west but at least they are improving unlike backwards Russia!

      Russia is a bully, its former sattelite states want to embrace freedom what does russia do it invades them.

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