133 Comments

OGAE 2015: Update


ogaeToday a further four OGAE clubs have revealed their votes for the 2015 OGAE Poll. Macedonia, France, Italy and the United Kingdom have voted following another four OGAE clubs that revealed their votes yesterday. If OGAE are anything to go by, we certainly have no clear winner for May

OGAE MACEDONIA
1 point – Azerbaijan
2 points – Israel
3 points – Australia
4 points – Belgium
5 points – Estonia
6 points – Slovenia
7 points – Albania
8 points – Sweden
10 points – Spain
12 points – Italy

OGAE FRANCE
1 point – Azerbaijan
2 points – Belgium
3 points – Australia
4 points – Slovenia
5 points – Norway
6 points – Spain
7 points – Israel
8 points – Estonia
10 points – Italy
12 points – Sweden

OGAE ITALY
1 point – Montenegro
2 points – Spain
3 points – Israel
4 points – Azerbaijan
5 points – France
6 points – Romania
7 points – Australia
8 points – Sweden
10 points – Slovenia
12 points – Norway

OGAE UNITED KINGDOM
1 point – Russia
2 points – Israel
3 points – Belgium
4 points – Iceland
5 points – Australia
6 points – Norway
7 points – Slovenia
8 points – Italy
10 points – Estonia
12 points – Sweden

OGAE POLAND
1 point – Albania
2 points – Israel
3 points – Italy
4 points – Germany
5 points – Belgium
6 points – Estonia
7 points – Slovenia
8 points – Sweden
10 points – Norway
12 points – Azerbaijan

OGAE NORWAY
1 point – Azerbaijan
2 points – Belgium
3 points – Montenegro
4 points – the Netherlands
5 points – Slovenia
6 points – Israel
7 points – Estonia
8 points – Sweden
10 points – Australia
12 points – Italy

OGAE LITHUANIA
1 point – the Netherlands
2 points – Australia
3 points – Albania
4 points – Israel
5 points – Italy
6 points – Germany
7 points – Sweden
8 points – Slovenia
10 points – Estonia
12 points – Norway

OGAE SERBIA
1 point – Albania
2 points – Germany
3 points – Norway
4 points – Montenegro
5 points – Spain
6 points – Israel
7 points – Sweden
8 points – Estonia
10 points – Italy
12 points – Slovenia

Norway, Italy and Sweden again have been topping the votes but Sweden still remain triumphant and remain 1st place and have increased the lead ahead of Italy

Sweden – 153 points
Italy – 140 points
Estonia – 113 points
Slovenia – 90 points
Norway – 78 points

Tomorrow we will get the votes from Greece, Iceland, Slovenia and Ireland.

133 comments on “OGAE 2015: Update

  1. I’m glad the UK has given points to Israel and Belgium but gutted we gave full points to Sweden. Is it me or could Sweden send Dustin the Turkey and still get the fanw**k from OGAE?

  2. I have to say that the current OGAE top 5 might be the top 5 when all is said and sung too. Austria might be a big upset for the OGAEs though, I can see The Makemakes in the top 5 too.

    • I agree that for the first time there’s no song that could be seen as an over-hyped OGAE fanwank unless one of these 5 shockingly flops but i really can’t see any of them missing the top-10.

    • Personally, I think that Russia may be the only one capable of stealing the show from Sweden and Italy.

      • And who outside of the Orthodox countries, is going to give Russia a vote given the current climate?

        • Polina has a much wider appeal, Max. Russia 15 will do too well. I say this because I dislike this suggary popsicle, not because of Mr. Putin.

          • It will do well as it always does because of 9 (well 8 now) former satelite states with large Russian populations in voting for it, along with backwards orthodox homophobes in a few other countries like Greece and maybe Romania.

            Just to be clear, im not saying all orthodox are homophobes, im just saying the ones who are, probably will vote for Russia.

          • Norway is one of the most pro equality countries in Europe, plus Russia has been sending its subs to neighbouring Sweden and Finland, and outright threatened Denmark with nukes. I’m sure Norway would not award Russia any points.

      • Russia,Australia and maybe Azerbaijan are also entries bidding for a top-10 place.Plus,some songs that will emerge as favorites from the rehearsals.Hopefully,Belgium and Latvia.

        • Yes, Australia will do too well as well as will Azerbaijan and its male diva. I suspect that Belgium and especially Latvia will not go down well is several quarters.

          • I hope you’re wrong. :( Albania,Ireland(i hope i’m not brainwashed by Donnie) and possibly Lithuania may do well,imo.

            • So do I. :)

            • For the first time I agree 100% with every top 10 contender you mentioned !
              Add Spain too!

            • Stop brainwashing me!lol.Yes i can see Spain,Ireland and Albania doing well but not top-7 well.Furthermore,Ireland will go nowhere without an effective stage performance and a much improved vocal performance whereas,Elhaida left a lot to be desired each time she performed her song live.

      • I am pretty sure that Western juries will prevent a Russian win.

    • If you replace Slovenia with Russia then yes. I agree.

  3. I actually was expecting to see Sweden get all the 12pts, because they have a winning OGAE formula. The fact that Italy is still so close may indicate that Il Volo may win ESC, because there Sweden will have to cater to a wider audience. That remains to be seen though.

    • Sweden wins televote, Italy wins jury vote, Italy wins overall, ET happy, rest of esc community outraged, campaign starts for end of jury vote. Just like the campaign to bring in the juries it will take a while, but eventually they will be gone (in their present format at least)

      • I don’t want either to win. :)

      • But if it is between Italy and Sweden on the big night, I’ll be rooting for Sweden for sure. You know, people here have different taste. ET isn’t a monolithic taste block. Will you ever realise that?

      • Max, Dimitri thinks that Italy may win the televote and he made a valid point a few weeks ago. Let me add that the rest of the community won’t be outraged, judging by the support Il Volo are getting from the OGAEs.

        I would rather see Italy winning for two reasons:

        1- They are great live (the song only works live for me)
        2- I have no wish to see Mr. Björkman organizing another show.

        • “I have no wish to see Mr. Björkman organizing another show”

          Agreed and signed.

        • The outrage won’t be so much to do with which country beats who, the outrage will come from the mere fact that, millions of paying televoters had their vote over ruled.

          Until now, the complaints about the juries have been largely kept at bay, because the juries have never altered the winner as soon as the situation emerges that 200 largely unknown and unaccountable individuals have overturned the result of millions of paying Europeans, there will definitely be some outrage.

          Of course others will defend the status quo, there always is but ESC rules don’t stay around for too long, and this current complete ranking and 50/50 split won’t remain viable in a majority of the publics eyes for much longer. Just like when neighbourly, political voting was complained about through the 2000s, yes you had individuals saying no its not a problem but eventually the chorus of complaint grew loud enough that juries were reintroduced.

          I’d also wager SVT and it’s allies have more clout in ESC than Rai, in fact even Rai would probably be slightly miffed they would be expected to pay out and host a show they don’t really care too much about.

          • You seem to have excellent connections inside RAI, SVT and allies and the EBU. Who are you, really? ;)

            What if Italy wins the televote and Sweden wins the jury vote? What then?

            • That would be telling.

              And I think the outrage would be similar if for whatever reason juries robbed Italy of the win and gave to Sweden amongst the community.

              Though in the EBU itself I think RAI would probably breathe a sigh of relief, as opposed to the reverse scenario where SVT would kick off.

              For SVT Eurovision is the holy grail, the musical olympics, and the chance to host is seen as a great privilege. People in Stockholm were genuinely upset Malmo got to host over them, it wasn’t just a joke.

              Whereas to RAI, the average Italian does not care about Eurovision and probably doesn’t know it’s on, they decided to rejoin as the EBU kept badgering them, and they want to be seen to do well, they don’t want to be like other Big UK/France lingering at the bottom of the board, but as seen in JESC, they don’t see hosting as an honour but a burden. Why pay out millions from your cash strapped budget to host a contest, your average viewer doesn’t really care about?

            • Again, I do not presume to know what all those people are thinking.

        • What did Christer do wrong apart from introduce the system where the broadcaster decides the line up.

          • We’ve been through this before, Max. He epithomizes glitter and gloss and I dislike his choices, but I respect them and everyone else who wants to go down the same road.

            • I can understand that in a Melfest perspective, but in ESC itself, he doesn’t really have much say over the gloss or the glamour, that’s down to the individual delegations.

              If Moldova want a giant dress that grows largely and has all sorts of images projected onto it, that’s upto them, unless its unfeasible, Christer can’t really stop it.

            • ‘Glitter abd gloss’ is much more than that, Max. You know that we disagree when it comes to this subject and there is no harm in that. I have to go now, but I’ll try to come back later.

          • And the system where all the songs are ranked from first to last, enabling the jury to wipe out a televoting favourite altogether…

          • I know someone who picked exactly the same entrants you’ve listed on your profile as their winners……hmm (thinking hard), could it be that same person? Quite a coincidence if it isn’t.

      • Italy may do better with televoting that with esc juries.They won San Remo televoting by a landslide but were only 4th with the juries.Of course,the esc juries are not the SR jury but we’ll see.

      • I also prefer Sweden to Italy if it is between these two. Italy is a bit too bombastic for my taste.

        But I would absolutely prefer Estonia, Austria or Latvia winning. Maybe Belgium and Slovenia too.

    • Italy have a winning formula too – “Sognu” was 2nd in the 2011 poll, and look how that ended up in Eurovision…

  4. Agree that the top 5 at the mo by OGAE wil be up there this year, maybe all in the top 10. Never underestimate Azerbaijan, and Oz will do well.

    The lack of points for the UK from OGAE clubs so far reinforces my belief that it will do really badly.

    • I disagree. I find OGAE vote generically. You always get the same type of songs doing well. Public voters at home will vote different I think

    • “my belief that it will do really badly.”

      I think the BBC is proud of the fact that it currently has the worst result in an ESC final, 26th with 0 points, (2003) and now sees the addition of a 27th country in the final as a chance to go even lower! ;) There even following the same formula, Male/Female duet with a catchy but still awful song. ;)

  5. Norway is the new Bosnia for me, in that every year they send a song I really dislike and somehow manages to be a fan fave every year. 2005-2008 were all fine in my opinion, but then Fiddler on the roof came in with his hypnosis mind trick and swept to victory, and they’ve been overrated in my opinion ever since!

  6. OGAE voting is usually very boring. But this year they seem to be overdoing it.

  7. Everyone keeps talking about Italy. I just can’t see it win. And most of all, I don’t want it to win. Probably one of the weakest Italian entries ever imo.

  8. How are we doing on an ET ‘jury’ vote? Have we had enough top 10s from regulars now for a definitive outcome??

    • Sure we did!
      I am sending you the results after the TEKO winner! Is it okay?
      In the meantime, any other regular (fe Stommie) wishing to cast their vote is free to do it!
      There is a tie for the 10th qualifier in one semi ;)

  9. Pre-rehearsals predictions:

    First semi (no order):

    Definite/almost definite:

    Belgium
    the Netherlands
    Greece
    Estonia
    Russia
    Denmark
    Albania
    Georgia

    Almost there:

    Serbia
    Hungary

    Borderline/could qualify in expense of Serbia or/and Hungary:

    Romania
    Finland (televoting support?)
    Armenia (top10 televoting result; I don’t think they will qualify but they will be very close)

    Second semi (no order):

    Definite/almost definite:

    Lithuania
    Norway
    Czech Republic
    Latvia
    Azerbaijan
    Iceland
    Sweden
    Slovenia

    Almost there:

    Ireland
    Cyprus

    Borderline/could qualify in expense of Ireland or/and Cyprus:

    Poland
    Montenegro

    Final:

    Winner:

    Estonia
    Italy

    Rest top5:

    Sweden
    Norway
    Russia

    Rest top10:

    Belgium
    Albania
    Slovenia
    Australia
    Azerbaijan

    Could enter top10 (most probably in expense of Australia; or if Belgium is lame live):

    Spain
    France (jury support)
    Lithuania

    Lets see if something changes during the next weeks :)

    • Greece is borderline as well (jury support). I do not rule out a top10 result as well.

    • Czech Republic as a definite qualifier???

      I don’t write them off, I mean they could qualify, but no way is that definite surely?

      • It is because you hate ballads :p Both are great live performers and therefore juries will credit them. Also it is a dynamic ballad and therefore televoters will not be bored with it.

        • I don’t hate ballads, my Top 2 last year (Austria and Sweden) were ballads.

          I personally also rank the Czech song positively but I’ve just not really seen them get much if any attention. Hence why I don’t rule it out, but wouldn’t consider it definite.

          Russia qualifying even as far in the future as 2024 I’d be willing to bet my house on and I hate it lol.

        • I don’t see the Czech song qualifying either at this point. Everything about CZE15 is so … well …. bulky … from the composition to the vocals to Marta’s chest … ;)

    • Armenia is definitely in!
      Czech R will most probably not qualify and suffer a fate of EST 14 (average jury support, weak televoting result)
      For Belgium I am holding my breath!
      France is 22-27 unless televoting falls for Charlie message…

      • 1. France can’t sink to the bottom because of juries.

        2. What makes you believe Armenia is definitely in? It is such a lame song.

        3. As for Czech R. I can’t compare it with EST 2014. It is a better song IMO and above all it is original unlike Estonia.

        • Original?

          Neigbouring Slovakia did the same song with the same performers back in 2009!

        • 1.France can flop see 2013 when it was 11th with juries and ended bottom 5 overall
          2.Armenia has a song that doesn’t appeal to fans but it is such a jury pleaser. Operatic vocals, “hidden message”, “sophisticated” orchestration. Add to this the biggest televoting support they will receive ever?
          3. Czech R 15 is definitely NOT original, lyrics are lame and the fact they are being very good vocally doesn’t mean anything (See Tanja last year). It is a song one can like but will forget when everything is said and done!

          • 1. It flopped because it got 0 which I expected. I don’t see that happening this time. When I say France will be supported by the juries I mean massive support. Comfortable top10.

            2. I still think juries will not support this at all.

            3. Let me disagree about Tanja. I don’t find her vocals OK. I can downgrade Czech R but they still within a chance of qualifying.

            • France getting massive jury support? Even Norway struggled last year to squeeze into top 8 with Carl being 18th in televoting (even with Sacandinavian telesupport)
              You think France can rank higher than 20 in televoting this year?
              Even with top 5 in juries, N’oubliez pas will be doomed if ranked 25-27th in most countries’ televoting…

            • ”France getting massive jury support? Even Norway struggled last year to squeeze into top 8 with Carl being 18th in televoting (even with Sacandinavian telesupport)”.

              In the end Norway found its way to the top10 :)

              France will do anything higher than 20th. Most probably isn’t a top10 contender but not lost cause either.

            • Not if it ends around 25-27 in most countries’ televoting. We will agree to disagree here!

          • Err..Lyrics are lame?Thre lyrics of the Czech song vs. the lyrics of the Albanian song:

            Wait for me don’t cross the sea of pain
            Wait for me I’m lost I’ve gone astray
            Ravens calling my name, their wings so dark
            Soon they’ll take me away, I have their mark
            They never miss their prey

            There is no light to pray for
            Cold and dim are the skies
            Wounded lying
            Running out of life
            In your eyes I could see
            Our hopes and our future
            Now we must let go

            Find me where the night turns into day
            Your love as a torch shows us the way
            How to be whole again

            There is no light to pray for
            Cold and dim are the skies
            Wounded lying
            Running out of life
            In your eyes I could see
            Our hopes and our future
            Now we must let go
            Must let go, must let fade away
            Or we can rise and fight

            For a light to live for
            Fire in our hearts
            Through our pain
            Through all the lies
            We will walk, walk reborn
            Hope never dies
            Never let me go

            Now,compare them with the lyrics f “I’m alive”…lol

            • When did I say I love ALB 15 lyrics?
              Czech R is superficial drama when it comes to conveying the dark mood!
              All cliches used together. Sea of pain, cold and dim skies, hope never dies…Hmmm…

            • The lyrics are fine,imo and they work perfectly with the music of this dark,rockish ballad with the medieval feel.

            • Lyrics are definitely poor in a rock context but to each his own!

        • France will get 12 pts from Armenia imo …

          • Armenia might even support Germany and Cyprus in case you are talking about the genocide denial matter. Cyprus has passed this year the same bill France did so some years ago.

  10. As for the prospects of Christer Björkman organizing another ESC:

    Yes, he represents glitter and gloss – also too much – but that is what Eurovision is about to most people. As you probably know, I would personally love the songs to be the main focus, and as I usually say about the production dimension of ESC: Less is more. I don’t need fireworks, confetti, pyro, props, LED and “make some noise”. But SVT were by no means the first to embrace that.

    That said, I actually think the “glitter and gloss” dimension was toned down a bit in ESC 2013 compared to Melodifestivalen, and I think the production had many qualities. It was not as loud and hysterical as it has been in some other years, and the show contained a lot of warmth (f.e. Sarah Dawn Finer’s performance of “The Winner Takes It All”). Plus I liked the stage a lot; it was very organic, based on soft lines rather than the sharp edges f.e. in Copenhagen.

    Among the less succesful things for me was Petra Mede who was often about to steal the show too much. It almost turned into The Petra Mede Show in parts. Plus the decision of SVT chosing the running order – something that has pros and cons, but where I think the cons have more weight overall.

  11. Speaking of Russia

    Some very shocking but good news coming from there.

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/05/04/gay-rights-activists-allowed-to-march-in-russian-may-day-parade/

    Yes it’s only a baby step, but in a country where so much as a crawl for LGBT rights is against the law, a baby step is a massive breakthrough.

    Genuinely can’t see how this was gov approved when it would seem to break all their offensive “gay propaganda laws” and to make things even better Vitaly Milonov the governing party MP who introduced the laws tried to get the police to stop the LGBT group from marching but they refused seemingly under orders not to from a higher power.

  12. Regarding OGAE voting, this is once again so boring and predictable!
    One weak earlier I was guessing their top 10 and I got 9 out of 10 (had Albania in, instead of Azerbaijan, but again currently speaking Albania is their 12th)
    It is really a pity to witness entries like the Irish and Latvian one dying at null…

  13. Does someone here know the directions the national juries have been given for Eurovision? When I read Christer Björkman’s explanation why exactly these 5 people he has picked were the chosen ones for the Swedish juries, he talks a lot about “being able to discover a hit”. Is that the reason why we have juries, to push the “hit songs”?

      • As lame a criterion that is, it at least focuses on the song to some extent, rather than voting up “impressive” singers, regardless of what they are singing.

        I have to say though, with each passing year I am becoming more and more anti-jury.

        • Looking for the hit potential of a song is a very subjective thing,imo and leads to promoting the mainstream,radio friendly entries.Any song that dares to be different is usually at risk.Besides,the juries are asked to evaluate the overall impression of the songs so this gives them the opportunity to promote entries they like regardless of the vocal performance or the more measurable,technical aspects of the song.

          • The jury rules suck … big time. :(
            Get rid of the juries!!!

            • I don’t think they should get rid of the juries.They bring some balance to the contest BUT they do have to take this new rule of ranking all songs back.It gives the juries an extra power.It’s not 50-50 anymore.They can vote down the songs they don’t like or resort to voting manipulation(see Georgia,Armenia,Azerbaijan and Belgium).Going back to the top-10 ranking and increasing the number of the jury panel is the way to go,imo.

            • I now searched for the analytical voting of Belgium in 2014.They were horrible!
              Armenia 1st with televoting,25th with the jury…
              Poland 4th with televoting,26th with the jury…
              Greece 7th with televoting,24th with the jury…
              http://www.eurovision.tv/page/results?event=1893&voter=BE

            • Once again we are in full agreement!

          • “Any song that dares to be different is usually at risk.”

            That seems to be the case with the jury voting altogether, sadly.

      • How can that be when in 2011, I think it’s quite obvious the 2 songs that would be the biggest hits were Popular and Lipstick. Instead that Italian song won the jury vote.

        Even last year the song that was the biggest hit was the Polish song, 48 million views on youtube a well known hit long before ESC etc, but juries slaughtered the Polish song.

        Also it seems odd to me as surely the songs with hit potential, would be doing well in the televote anyway as after all, public support is what makes a song a hit.

        • We all know that the YT crowd will always go for the sh*tty stuff and not for good music. ;)

        • Hit potential is one of the aspects.F.i about the Polish entry you mention,they may have voted down the stage performance and the lyrics.By the way,last year’s biggest hit chart-wise was the Netherlands and not Poland.

      • Ah, thank you. Well, that makes sense then. Though I’m not happy with the “hit potential” factor myself; isn’t that something that shows up in televoting instead?

        • Given the opportunity,i did a small research and i didn’t find any written rule on promoting songs with this so called hit potential.Maybe,it’s more of an oral recommendation than a standard rule.

  14. “Is that the reason why we have juries, to push the “hit songs”?”
    :( :( :(

  15. Lisa trying to answer to the question what ESC means to the French. LOL

  16. Sweden…as always :)

  17. I have said it before but: One has to distinguish between the fact that there are juries and the way they are supposed to work.

    I principally want juries to be there for the sake of the musical seriousness of the whole thing. But they have to be real experts, that is, having a wide musical knowledge, and they have to vote for artistic quality foremost.

    So no, I don’t want to get rid of juries in ESC, but the guidelines could be improved a lot.

    • And I perfectly agree with “Going back to the top-10 ranking and increasing the number of the jury panel is the way to go,imo.”

      • Here is an analysis of the 2015 juries by escinsight if you want to read it:
        http://www.escinsight.com/2015/05/01/eurovision-song-contest-2015-jury-names/

        • It’s too late now, but I will go through it when I have the time.

          But I have to say, I feel relatively alienated towards Escinsight. My impression being that they have a tendency of reducing ESC to mathematics and not talking very much about music and songs.

          • That could be my task: to make a Eurovision site that takes a musical point of view and contains song analyses and such.

          • I see.I like to read them because of their different approach to the contest.It helps me take into account the different aspects of esc.

            • It is not that I don’t find their writing interesting. It’s more like, where are the songs?

        • didnt you notice my replies there?

          • Dancer Rennie Mirro in Swedish jury (and Sarah Dawn Finer’s half-brother) was also in the Swedish preview panel in 2010. The impression I got from him there was that he didn’t really have any opinion of his own, but just said the same thing about the songs as everyone else did (well, except “Eastern European funk” which he loved and the rest hated).

          • Yes,i did after i had read the article.

            • Spanish jury is under investigation , just as in Spanish political parties before the vote the following day (24th), ! such things even went to our parliament it seems about political interference via TVE about why Spanish jury is so full of ex ESC singers (and thus not representative of the “people” and only represented themselves ,mostly with Swedish writers) agree and most of Spain now too I guess,,

            • I think the guideline is the jury to be representative of the national music scene.More like a jury of music-related experts.The Spanish one is definitely too full of ex esc participants but it does follow the general EBU guidelines.

  18. our journalists and poltically free channels at least challenged that, especially the Swedish/Spanish aspect and the juries involved in 2015 with their Swedish connection

  19. I guess conclusion is here in Spain goes like this:
    1 there is minimum interest here about ESC and especially with reports from other channels about Spain Edurne’s song
    2/Unlike other countries, nobody cares whether she wins or not (in a recent Spanish poll it was 70% didn’t care one way or the other)
    3 / and maybe most importantly, Spanish voters liked the singer, didn’t like the song so much, and especially hated the fact it was written again by foreign writers

  20. Currently watching The Voice of Belgium to see the Loic performance. It’s certainly an experience. They just had a classic singer and a rock singer singing “Summer Nights” from Grease. It wasn’t good lol

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