Eurovision 2014 – As soon as the contest was over, the EBU published the full televote and jury results (including each jury’s vote). Here you’ll find the semifinals’ results with 100% jury, 100% televote and most importantly with the old split results prior to the 2013 changes. Tell us what you think!
Probably this is due to DR’s actions towards more transparency. Whereas last year, the same EBU took longer to publish “split” results, but only with % of rankings and not even the detailed country by country results, this year we got everything down to each jury member, and as soon as the contest was over!
And this transparency is good news for the contest in general, as we get to spot the things we can claim as unfair, if not plain cheating for some juries. But at least now we know. Sure we can say the EBU is lying on the stats they’re giving us, but that would be going very far in cynism. We have already plenty to comment on.
First and most of all, jury and televote again disagreed quite a lot. So, a simple glimpse at the full results from each set of voting can tell us which countries were liked and disliked depending on a “mass” effect of televote (where you get 20 chances to hit your favorite song(s)) or a jury result (where supposed specialists get to rank all songs).
But among the 2013 changes made by the SVT, there wasn’t just the end of random draw, there was also a change in the voting system. Before, the jury would have a top 10 with points (12,10,8-1) and the televote would as well, and put together countries had therefore points from 24 possible to 1, and that top 10 would then be given 12, 10, 8-1 in the final results. Nowadays, every country is ranked from 1st to 25th/26th (depending if the country is a finalist or not), by both jury and televote, and these results are added on, so a song ranked 1st and 26th would get a total of 27 points, when a song ranked 2nd and 11th would get 13 points and much better than in the former system, when the first song would get 12pts but the second one only 10pts.
So here’s the Semifinal 1 results to compare:
|Official results||Televote results||Jury results||Old system|
|1||150 Netherlands||147 Netherlands||130 Netherlands||145 Netherlands|
|2||131 Sweden||125 Hungary||125 Sweden||130 Sweden|
|3||127 Hungary||122 Sweden||122 Hungary||127 Hungary|
|4||121 Armenia||121 Armenia||102 Armenia||121 Armenia|
|5||118 Ukraine||119 Ukraine||94 Azerbaijan||112 Ukraine|
|6||63 Russia||73 Russia||88 Ukraine||66 Azerbaijan|
|7||63 Montenegro||72 Portugal||74 Montenegro||62 Russia|
|8||61 Iceland||58 San Marino||68 Iceland||60 Montenegro|
|9||57 Azerbaijan||50 Iceland||64 Albania||59 Iceland|
|10||40 San Marino||43 Montenegro||61 Estonia||44 Portugal|
|11||39 Portugal||41 Belgium||57 Russia||37 Estonia|
|12||36 Estonia||41 Azerbaijan||27 Latvia||34 San Marino|
|13||33 Latvia||40 Latvia||25 San Marino||32 Belgium|
|14||28 Belgium||23 Albania||24 Belgium||32 Latvia|
|15||22 Albania||14 Moldova||24 Moldova||26 Albania|
|16||13 Moldova||13 Estonia||17 Portugal||10 Moldova|
Reminder: Albania, Montenegro, San Marino and Moldova used 100% jury officially.
Analysis: Every system had the same top 4 countries, and juries and televote only changed second and third (with funny enough the same amount of points). Almost everyone agreed on the amount of points to give Armenia as well. These prove that, with only 16 countries taking part and four of them using only televote, it tended to make all votes similar. And there’s common sense. Overall, 7 countries are through in all four systems: Netherlands, Sweden, Hungary, Armenia, Ukraine, Montenegro and Iceland. Televote and juries disagreed on 6 countries: Russia Portugal and San Marino were in the televote’s top 10 but not in the juries’ who had Azerbaijan, Albania and Estonia instead. As for the two systems, old and new, they have 9 in common. Because Portugal was dead last with juries when it was as high as 7th in televote, it would have gone through in the old system that favors well liked songs regardless of how they did below 10th (so Portugal’s last place in jury does not matter). Same thing happened with Estonia, dead last of televote, pushing down to 12th. However, in the new system, San Marino’s only 13th place in juries help them get the extra point to qualify in the last qualification place above Portugal and Estonia! If you want some math mysteries, look at Albania, 14th in televote, 9th in juries and 15th in both systems… Belgium, Latvia and Moldova are out in all systems.
And here’s the Semifinal 2 results to compare:
|Official results||Televote results||Jury results||Old system|
|1||169 Austria||165 Austria||138 Austria||167 Austria|
|2||125 Romania||126 Romania||117 Finland||124 Romania|
|3||97 Finland||116 Poland||113 Malta||104 Finland|
|4||92 Switzerland||98 Switzerland||100 Norway||86 Belarus|
|5||87 Belarus||91 Greece||99 Romania||82 Switzerland|
|6||77 Norway||86 Belarus||71 Belarus||82 Poland|
|7||74 Greece||63 Finland||70 F.Y.R. Macedonia||72 Norway|
|8||70 Poland||55 Norway||60 Slovenia||69 Greece|
|9||63 Malta||48 Slovenia||52 Greece||67 Malta|
|10||52 Slovenia||47 Ireland||51 Switzerland||50 Slovenia|
|11||36 Lithuania||44 Lithuania||41 Lithuania||39 F.Y.R. Macedonia|
|12||35 Ireland||36 Malta||34 Poland||35 Lithuania|
|13||33 F.Y.R. Macedonia||28 F.Y.R. Macedonia||33 Georgia||30 Ireland|
|14||19 Israel||26 Israel||33 Ireland||18 Georgia|
|15||15 Georgia||15 Georgia||32 Israel||17 Israel|
Reminder: Georgia and Macedonia used 100% jury officially.
Analysis: This was a smaller semifinal (only 15) and it was more spread out. Austria of course won every round, Romania did very well except juries had it only 5th. Finland, jury’s runner-up, but never been a favorite of televote, made it third in both systems. However, the two disagreements were Malta and Poland: both finished 3rd and 12th in juries and televote! The two systems created the same top 10 and therefore all 9 countries (besides Malta and Poland) were through in the end. Televote had Ireland 10th and juries had Macedonia 7th! Lithuania almost made it again, but no one had it better than 11th and Israel and Georgia were also never qualified and battled last place depending on the system. uries had the bottom 4 very close (34, 33, 33 and 32 points) when televote had Georgia definitely last. The new system means Georgia gets last, but the old one would have had Israel.
More things to think about.:
- The draw, does it matter? Regardless of songs, the first half and second half countries managed to get 5 from each in both semifinal. So there’s no pattern but it definitely says something that it has to be 5 from first half, 5 from second half, as if there was a wave of good and bad songs alterning: and after all, isnt it what chosing the draw is all about? The first song qualified in both semifinals as well as the last three. More interestingly, Romania went from 2nd in semifinal 2 to 12th in the final, going last in semifinal and 6th in the final out of 26…
- It’s interesting to note that there’s often a gap between the two semifinals linked to the “random” pot system. In 2008, only one song from the second semifinal made it to the top 10, Portugal the runner-up in it came 13th. This year, only two songs from the top 10 came from the second semifinal, seven from the first semifinal. Austria (1st) and Norway (6th) managed to did well 1s and 8th respectively in front of the first semifinalists. Funny that Norway made a huge come back the other songs in the Top 5 in second semifinal did quite well: Romania (12th), Finland (11th), Switzerland (13th), Belarus (16th). So how did Norway do much better? More countries vote in the final, and also point wise, it’s almost the same results for Norway (+10) when the top 5 except Austria from semi 2 dropped points in comparison to semifinal 1.
- Now that we know the full detailed results that DR and the EBU had Tuesday night, we can see what choices were made in the final’s draw. And funny enough, the two winners of the semifinals, drawn randomly first half and second half were given the same spot there: 11th (11th and 24th), which is near the end of the half, but two spots before the actual end, which was given to a semifinal runner-up (Sweden) and a Big 5 (UK), two songs tipped as favorite for the title. And in between 11th and 13th (24th and 26th)? Again a Big 5 (Germany), considered as a non-chance for the title, and a semifinal 10th, San Marino. And to open up each half, in the first half, Ukraine and Belarus, 5th in both semifinals to have a rather averagy but not bad opener, and a Big 5 (France) which was seen as very likely bottom 5. These are scary facts that do tend to prove what we, at the Eurovision Times, were blaming the non-random draw: they say it’s to make a better show based on songs’ genre. But actually, they think that it’s a better show when we get good and bad songs alternating with one another. So in the end, we will get a very “balanced” show but sadly, there’ll be no final’s results and the broadcasters will “fix” the idea of what a song does based on the semis only. Surprise? We got 5 songs in the top 10 in the first half, 5 in the second half and then 11th in the second half, 12th in the first half, 13th in the second half, 14th in the first half… Soon, we’ll know the results decided before the final even happens!
- And now a little more out-of-the-box thought. But isn’t it very odd that the winner and Eurovision runner-up, except for when they came from the Big 5, always came from two different semifinals? 2008 was the first year and there were no juries, so Russia 2008 is one rare “odd duck” of winning Eurovision without its semifinal. But still, Russia and Ukraine were in two different semifinals (Greece, overall 3rd, won Russia’s semifinal). Since then: Norway and Iceland in 2009 were in two different semifinals and won theirs respectively. Turkey won its semifinal in 2010 and Germany won. Azerbaijan came second behind Greece in first semifinal of 2011, Italy was already qualified. Azerbaijan 2011 and Russia 2008 who did not win their semifinals are also the lowest winners point wise of late. The last three years, the pattern was perfect: in 2012, Russia won semifinal 1 and Sweden semifinal 2; in 2013, Denmark won semifinal 1 and Azerbaijan semifinal 2; in 2014, Netherlands won semifinal 1 and Austria semifinal 2. So one has to wonder, why such a pattern, knowing that it’s random pots that decide which semifinal each song sings in? My hypothesis is that semifinals CREATE the overall result. Not that Austria and Netherlands wouldnt have done very well, including Conchita’s win, if both were in the same semifinal of course. But so far, winner and runner-up has never ever sung in the same semifinal. I think that half the countries have “their” winner from a semifinal and it helps that in the end, you remember more the songs you could have voted for. France for instance only shows the semifinal it votes in… My hypothesis is maybe wrong, but that’s an interesting fact that no one has put a light on before!