Eurovision Prediction: The Final - Who Will Win Eurovision?

Eurovision 2012 – We’re just hours away from the climax of the Eurovision year. In this article I will try to predict the result. I will probably fail miserably, but it still is a good way to fill the time until tonight. Except for 2010 (I didn’t think anyone would vote for us – Germany) I predicted at least the winner every time since 2007. So maybe at least that will be correct ^^ Please add your own comments at the end of this post. Thanks and have a great Eurovision day!

I made a personal Top 26. So I will give you the place in my personal Top 26 for each entry and then try to predict its chances. The problem is that I already have 14 songs in the top 10 ^^ I really don’t know… but it means it’s a good Eurovision year!

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01 – – United Kingdom – Engelbert Humperdinck – Love Will Set You Free

A slow and classy start to Eurovision 2012. He probably really thinks he can win it, but I really don’t. Some juries may go for it, but there are better ballads and better male singers (Estonia) in the competition. I don’t really see the demographic for this. Will his old fans really watch, and will they call for him? I mean, I never heard of him before the BBC’s announcement. In short: I’m skeptical. He doesn’t even have the senior bonus so much anymore (Russia has!). EDIT: I just saw a snippet from the jury final! His vocals seem completely off. I now have to predict a Bottom 5. Sorry UK!

Personal: 20.

Prediction: 21-26

02 – – Hungary – Compact Disco – Sound of Our Hearts

A good contrast to both the UK before it and Albania after it and I saw he changed his hideous outfit to a simple black leather jacket. Looks way better, but I’m afraid it won’t help much. The dreaded second position doesn’t help either. The song is pretty modern and for me it is catchy, but I fear Hungary may be in for another Bottom 5 placement.

Personal: 12.

Prediction: 21-26

03 – – Albania – Rona Nishliu - Suus

This is avant-garde, special, unique. She sings her heart out and the juries will love this kind of song. Her singing is flawless and absolutely amazing. Plus, if the poll on this website is any indication, there is a big Kosovar diaspora waiting to vote for this tonight. It deserves a place in the Top 10 and will probably be just scratching on it.

Personal: 14.

Prediction: 11-15

04 -  – Lithuania – Donny Montell – Love is blind

Oh man, if you want me to say something positive about this: great backdrop. But that’s about it. I think performing last was what pushed Lithuania to the final. Anything else would shock me. Clear favorite for the Bottom 5.

Personal: 25.

Prediction: 21-26

05 – – Bosnia-Herzegovina – Maya Sar – Korake ti znam

A definite grower, but that’s not enough for Eurovision. She hasn’t changed her dress for all I know, and the song is a bit too slow and many will perceive it as boring. With the votes from Balkan, Muslim countries , diaspora and some jury support this will not come Bottom 5, but…

Personal: 16.

Prediction: 16-20

06 – – Russia – Buranovskiye Babushki – Party For Everybody

Well, this will probably win the televoting by a big margin. Of the rumors I hear are true, and I think they might be, they were Bottom 5 with the juries in their semi. With more great songs to choose from than in semi 1 for the juries, they may keep it from winning. But this is still one of the biggest contenders. I don’t want it to do well, because they can not sing for their lives, the song is basically a big bag e’ nothing. All they have is their age and their cuteness. Well, we’ll see what Europe thinks. Oh and the draw right after “boring” Bosnia will help them even more.

Personal: 23.

Prediction: 1-5

07 – – Iceland – Gréta Salóme & Jónsi – Never Forget

Love the song, but it is perhaps too old-fashioned to do well enough. Jónsi should lighten up int he first minutes! that may bring in some votes, but otherwise not a contender as some people seem to think.

Personal: 7.

Prediction: 16-20

08 – – Cyprus – Ivi Adamou - La La Love

Who has read my review of semi1 knows what I think about this. It is a catchy song, no question, but completely not my cup of tea! However, this kind of song usually does really well in Eurovision. I just don’t know how the juries will decide on this one. If they support it, Cyprus may look at its first Top 10 placing since 2004.

Personal: 24.

Prediction: 11-15

09 – – France – Anggun – Echo (You and I)

aaa non la France ;( … Anggun is a great person, but she tried way too hard to be Eurovision, the performance is too much and too messy, the song seems modern, but it’s just a bit too strange to get a lot of televotes I think. Unfortunately la grande nation will have to face a bottom 5 placing.

Personal: 19.

Prediction: 21-26

10 – – Italy – Nina Zilli – L’amore è femmina (Out Of Love)

A great, contemporary song, she sings amazingly (Italian Amy Winehouse is not an empty phrase in my opinion), apparently she performed really well last night. It may be the compromise between juries and televoters. I wonder what RAI will do if they really win. Gooo Nina!

Personal: 6.

Prediction: 1-5

11 – – Estonia – Ott Lepland – Kuula

The best male singer in the competition, a nice ballad and in the national tongue. Personally, this is in my Top 10, but I fear it will not be standing out enough to get a lot of votes, especially after Italy.

Personal: 9.

Prediction: 16-20

12 – – Norway – Tooji – Stay

Very, very catchy. This will profit both from Scandinavian votes and from Turkish, Azeri votes, if the reaction in the hall is any indication. He looks very handsome of course, so we can add the young girls and some men (you get what I mean) vote as well. Juries may kill it as his vocal performance is really poor.

Personal: 10.

Prediction: 6-10

13 – – Azerbaijan – Sabina Bayeva – When The Music Dies

So a Swedish ballad in English sung by a good-looking woman. What else is new in Azerbaijan? They did well with this formula before and they will again. This year they don’t have the Turkish diaspora for themselves like last year so I don’t believe in the Top 5. Plus, they don’t really want to win again I think. Kudos for the Azeri element in the last minute though, for me that’s another sign they don’t really want to win!

Personal: 17.

Prediction: 4-6

14 – – Romania – Mandinga – Zaleilah

Nice summer hit from Romania. 12 points from Spain, Moldova and Italy are a given I think. I had them as contenders before the contest, they had some sound problems in the semi, maybe that’s why I just can’t see them win anymore. I also can’t really assess how the juries will like this as she really sings it well and the song is not that bad.

Personal: 13.

Prediction: 6-10

15 – – Denmark – Soluna Samay – Should’ve Known Better

Sweet, catchy and radio-friendly. Denmark longs for another Top 5 placement and the victory. Both are not really in view in my opinion. This is a bit like Germany, which comes after it and may split the radio-friendly vote with Roman. Hope she looses the outfit, but she won’t. Hard to say where this will end up. I think the Scandinavian vote will mostly go to Norway and Sweden, but the juries may support this.. oh man, it’s hard

Personal: 11.

Prediction: 11-15 (mostly because I already filled the places in the Top 10!)

16 – – Greece – Eleftheria Eleftheriou – Aphrodisiac

My least favourite entry. After two great entries in 2010 and 2011,Greece is back at the beach shakin’ the booty. Well, that’s my opinion. Usually these songs do well in Eurovision and it’s Greece! If she shows her panties again tonight many straights may go for it.As Cyprus is also in the same genre and a bit stronger, this may be the first time Greece missed the Top 10. I wouldn’t  mind at all!

Personal: 26.

Prediction: 11-15

17 – – Sweden – Loreen – Euphoria

Euuphooooriaaaa. I loved the song (and honestly, the performance) the first time I saw it! I immediately felt the urge to watch it again, without knowing why exactly i love it. The last time that happened to me was Adele’s performance of Someone Like You at the Brits and we all know what that started! She rules the betting, the fan polls, the iTunes charts, so this seems like a Rybak-certain qualifier. But in 2009 there were no cute grannies and no Italian Amy Winehouse. I really hope the snow-flake incident during the jury rehearsal didn’t steal her victory. I wouldn’t mind Eurovision in Stockholm and a winner that has the potential to be a number one hit all over Europe. Go Loreen!

Personal: 2.

Prediction: 1-5.

18 – – Turkey – Can Bonomo – Love me back

Quirky, different, nice. The ship building idea is great. The song has its audience , it has the diaspora and probably even jury support. Turkey will make the Top 10 tonight!

Personal: 5.

Prediction: 6-10

19 – – Spain – Pastora Soler – Quédate conmigo

This is every Celine Dion-loving fanboys’ dream. And it is mine. I never noticed it and only really listened to it in Eurovision week. Love the strong vocals, the drama and all. There is an audience for it, it may surprise many or end up Bottom 5. This can really go everywhere I think.

Personal: 3.

Prediction: 11-15 (really unsure about it, could be Top 10 or even Top 5, no idea)

20 – – Germany – Roman Lob – Standing Still

Nice, down-to-earth and relaxing. This would have worked so well after Ukraine or Ireland, after Spain it may be a sleeping pill. The chorus of the song is the weakest part in my opinion and that is usually not a good sing. we’ll see.Denmark is a similar genre and a bit better that this I think.

Personal: 15.

Prediction: 21-26

21 – – Malta – Kurt Calleja – This is the night

After Spain and Germany this may work incredibly well. Many name it as a Top 5 contender now. I don’t see that to be honest. I think they made it due to the juries and are hyped way too much at the moment.

Personal: 21.

Prediction: 21-26

22 – – FYR Macedonia – Kaliopi – Crno i belo

Wow. What a woman! What a great song. I don’t understand why I didn’t like this at the beginning. She is the most played song today in this house ^^. The genre may be a bit too special  to do really well, but she deserves every point she will get! Hard one to predict again.Macedonia usually has a place in the upper Top 20… that’s the only thing that I rely on for the prediction… no idea again ^^

Personal: 4.

Prediction: 16-20 (I hope she’ll do better)

23 – – Ireland – Jedward – Waterline

I don’t know, I don’t know. They lost the novelty factor. No one will be shocked to see the “crazy twins” anymore. That may cost some votes + the song is much weaker than Lipstick. The jumping around doesn’t really fit the song at all. BUT, Jedward have the biggest (televoting) fan base of all acts in this final. I don’t know how these factors will influence the result, but I think they may repeat their 8th place from last year.

Personal: 22.

Prediction: 6-10

24 – – Serbia – Zeljko Joksimovic – Nije ljubav stvar

My favourite 20/20 points. It doesn’t get any better for me. If it was up to me this would win ahead of Sweden. He will sweep the Balkans and get the diaspora from Switzerland, Austria, Sweden etc. Plus the song is really good and will get points from many other countries as well. He sings very well and it will impress the juries! A definite contender for first place. Aijjjde Zeljlko!

Personal: 1.

Prediction: 1-5

25 – – Ukraine – Gaitana – Be my guest

Amazing draw, after slow Serbia. Life-affirming, happy, dancy, and a tad trashy? She sings for her life and saves the song. Visually stunning. This will do very well in televoting, juries may prevent it from reaching the Top 10.

Personal: 18.

Prediction: 6-10

26 – – Moldova – Pasha Parfeny- Lăutar

Funny, adorable, catchy, likeable. These are the words that come to my mind when I see the performance. The song is really nice as well and the draw may help it further. May be a Top 10 contender, but there are also soo many other good songs.

Personal: 8.

Predicition: 16-20

I’m not happy with the overall picture, mostly I had to put songs into a lower category to fill the empty places. I basically had 8 11-15th at some point.

Who will win then?

This is my prediction for the Top 4:

1. Sweden

2. Serbia

3. Italy

4. Russia

What do you think? fire away!

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