Eurovision 2012 – In less than 24 hours we will know the ten lucky countries that will qualify from semi-final one. In this editorial I would like assess each countries’ chances to qualify(according to yours truly). So here we go:
Montenegro: My 7-year old sister loves this and wants to see the “crazy song” over and over again. Unfortunately Montenegro is not funny enough for me personally to deserve a qualification. The first spot, the jury unfriendliness and the few Ex-Yugo countries in this semi make this an almost sure non-qualifier for me.
Iceland: I love this song and the performance. Usually I would say this is a sure qualifier. Let’s hope coming second won’t impact their chances. They deserve the final!
Greece: Exactly the kind of song I do not really care about at all. Maybe this will be the first time Greece stays in the semi. I admit it is very unlikely, but who would’ve thought Turkey and Norway wouldn’t make it last year. The biggest problem for Greece may be that Cyprus, coming later in the running order, has a very similar song and may attract more of the clientele.
Latvia: I absolutely hate this song at this point. It is in no way what I would call good humor. Unfortunately it creeps into your ear and insists on staying there. I’m quite sure the juries’ will kill this if it had any chance of qualifying through televoting in the first place.
Albania: Love it or hate it. Juries will love it especially in this semi, televoting may kill it, but I’m still pretty certain Rona will be screaming her heart out on Saturday as well. On stage that is…
Romania: The possible summer hit of this contest. No way in hell this will not go through! It may very possibly win the semi and for me is a contender for a Top 5 position on Saturday.
Switzerland: They are young, fresh, sexy and enthusiastic. They are a borderline case I think, but as it is the only song that could qualify as rock in this semi there is a chance Switzerland will get lucky. Gabriel and Ivan do deserve it!
Belgium: I like the song now, but it took some time… At Eurovision some time is too long. Some think the juries will save her, but with a much stronger ballad (in my opinion) coming right after, its chances are quite small me thinks… and never forget: it’s Belgium!
Finland: When I first heard it I loved it to pieces, I kind of lost sight of it after all the songs were revealed and then realized it existed and that I still quite like it. Though the 12 points from Sweden will only be able to come in the Final, Finland will be a jury and moderate televoting success and thus should qualify.
Israel: It’s different. I get that, but I can’t get into it. Many fans seem to love it, but I’m pretty sure this won’t make it.
San Marino: NO… just no
Cyprus: Insert what I wrote about Greece. I really hope just one of these two will make it, and if so that Cyprus will be back on Saturday. Ivi is just a bit more energetic, a bit less generic and her song is a bit less annoying…. But I have to stress: A BIT…
Denmark: A nice, relaxed song, the living room atmosphere is great and Denmark should have no problem to go to the final. I can’t see it go to the Top 5 there, though…
Russia: 1000000% sure qualifier. It’s Russia and there are 6 half-dead grannies on stage, they got more media coverage all over Europe than any other artist (again, my sister knew about them before I could tell her). If you have money to spare, bet it on Russia qualifying.
Hungary: When I first heard this I was sure it would do well. Despite all the negative opinions I still think this has a shot. It may beat out Switzerland as a quasi rock song.
Austria: Annoying, annoying, annoying. I loved their song in last year’S NF, but this is just unbearable… It doesn’t help that I understand (remotely) what they are singing about. I hope the juries will kill it and televoting will be indifferent. Despite the great position, I’m pretty sure it won’t make it…
Moldova: Fun, Balkan, crazy dances… His “costume” looks a bit like a …well… Nazi uniform, but maybe that’s just me. The song is catchy and the lyrics are so bluntly ridiculous and just grammatically wrong that it’s more funny than sad .. no?
Ireland: Jedward seem like a dead sure qualifier as well.. The song is quite ok and they should make it indeed. The only problem I see is that their big fan communities are in countries that are not in this semi. We’ll see, but I think they’ll be able to take a shower in front of 100 million viewers on Saturday.
Personal qualifiers: Iceland, Albania, Switzerland, Finland, Belgium, Denmark, Hungary, Moldova, Ireland
My Prediction (in descending order): Russia, Romania, Denmark, Cyprus, Ireland, Moldova, Finland, Hungary, Albania, Iceland (Greece,Switzerland)
Thanks for reading 
Nice article there
I’m so damn lousy at predicting. All I know is that I want to see “Time” in the final.
PS: hang on there Emilia Romania!
Pretty much agree with your analysis, my only disagreement is Finland which unfortunately won’t make it imo. Jedward may not have the countries with the big fan base voting in their semi but the performance is convincing and pretty witty and eccentric and it will convince both juries and televoting. Ideal scenario : Both Switzerland and Hungary qualifying and Albania out. If Greece stays in the semis and Finland or Israel or Belgium qualify it will be even better. Russia is the inevitable reality we have to face no matter what everyone thinks of the song. Please let Sinplus and Compact Disco in the final
My biggest wish for tonight’s jurie vote : To let the so predicted Albanian entry to do well with the jurie vote to crash and burn with the jurors..I think it’s time to be done with this hype..And have them support some stuff with musical credibility like Hungary and Switzerland to help them gain a place in the final. The jurie vote rarely lets me down and I hope that will be the case here..Hang on with the good stuff jurors
Your condition is getting worse…You now , talk to the jurors ? :s
They seem to listen to me
So it’s worth to give it a try I guess 
I should have done it some hours before though.. 
I’ve just got back to our hotel after the show… wow! It was so much fun. We were right down at the front next to the runway off the stage, got very hot by the pyros! Excellent performances all round, some really really good ones.
Iceland were brilliant, it looks and sounds fantastic.
The grannies brought the house down, another standing ovation.
I have no idea at all now which ten will make it through, it’s a very tough semifinal.
Everything ran smoothly and to time, the hall was excellent, security was strict but friendly, ticket barriers all worked ok, and instead of hot dogs in the catering bars you could by chocolate mouse. We had a blast!
I am honestly so jealous of anyone who gets the chance to attend the events..And I am glad everything worked out fine apparently with the tickets. The two songs you mentioned are not my favourites but expect them to do well..too well to be honest..Well at least the icelandic entry pompous and hollows at some points as it might be has some more musical credibility compared to the russian entry.
Good for you.
Montenegro : If this doesn’t get last place with juries then who will?
Iceland : Qualifier for sure , don’t know what they will achieve in final.I wish them the best!
Greece : Eleftheria is doing everything she can , the song doesn’t help.Ogae journalists poll in Baku has it among favorites in 1st semi ,that sounds encouraging…Almost certain we will get to final ( juries and early draw make me feel a bit insecure , but the appeal of an ACT like Aphrodisiac televoting-wise is almost predictable ) where I am expecting around #10.
Latvia : Boring and NON qualifier !
Albania : The dress ruins it for me. I would have preferred the official clip’s approach.
Romania : Will do surprisingly well , it has already climbed up to 5th with bets.
Switzerland : It still sounds amateur and unoriginal to me , however I can see them just making it through…unless Hungary stops them ( Compact Disco deserve this more ).
Belgium : I am waiting to see if juries can boost this enough into the overall top 10 of first semi…I am not writing a jury top 3 off.It will depend on how much televoting will ignore it.
Finland : It is in Swedish thus juries will prefer Belgium.Televoting will ignore it equally to Belgium.Unfortunately out !
Israel : I like it but I lost faith.It comes across as a silly act.
San Marino : Embarassing.Juries will of course support the microstate in order to counterbalance televoting influence.Still , NON qualifier !
Cyprus : FFF , I predict another Rockefeller Street…
Denmark : Well produced , well performed.Would have qualified even without juries’ over the top support ( same as every year when it comes to what Denmark sends )
Russia : Gimmick ! It will definitely not deserve the place it will score.
Hungary : I am thinking this will go unnoticed ( Grannies are to blame as well ).Prove me wrong.
Austria : Unfortunately , nothing can top their NF performance.Not enough televoting support to get them through.Non qualifier.
Moldova : Fun but with flaws , actually many…Borderline qualifier.No way juries will rank this in top 10 !
Ireland : Unless they get pneumonia and organisers run out of antibiotics , we will see them in the Final…
To sum up :
Sure qualifiers ( in order of appearance ) : Ice , Gre , Alb , Rom , Den , Russ , Ire
Borderline : Swi , Belg , Isr , Cyp , Hun , Mold ,
Non hopers : Monte , Lat , Fin , San M , Aus.
Personal Qualifiers : 1)Albania , 2)Iceland , 3)Denmark , 4)Finland , 5)Moldova , 6)Hungary , 7)Romania , 8)Israel , 9)Cyprus ,10)Austria.
Good luck and enjoy the 1st semi !
I do not have much faith in Finland as well Donnie but would really say there’s no hope ? It’s not in a more difficult position than Israel imo..
1st : “Time” is in English and 2nd : it kinda stands out genre-wise compared to a ballad in native language coming after another ballad ( disney that is ) sung in English !
“Time” is in english – hebrew
I do hope both Iris and Pernilla do well though..Semi 1 is not exactly rich in terms of ballads and if there is one to make it (I consider Denmark pretty much certain) then I would go for one of those..Anyway..
“Time” is in Hebrew at the same extent “L’amore e femmina” is in Italian…
Well they are both bilingual…So yes what you say is true I guess.
Donnie how can Cyprus 2012 be Estonia 2011? They are two different songs…
They are both girly pop , awkwardly presented imo and achieved around 7th in Ogae votings.Too much in common if you ask me…
Well it is a quite generic statement, I would say, especially that ogae think. ”La la love” is a ”dance pop” whilst ”Rockefeller street” is a purely a pop song presented in clown show. Cyprus is doing a mainstream choreography. IMO they are two totally different things…
You can’t call Ivi’s performance an Ani Lorak’s one either…And Estonia was girly and definitely NOT clown imo ! Anyway remains to be seen
PS: It’s obvious that I was not comparing the 2 songs but only their potential appeal ACT-wise and OGAE-wise…
I haven’t called Ivi, Ani….And also the OGAE does not have any serious business in the prediuction. If you take it like this then Loreen should follow the destiny of Hungary 2011. Well let me remind you that Kati’s song was pop-dance piece as well. Loreen’s is pop-dance too…i insist Estonia 2011 and Cyprus 2012 are two different things. Estonia is pop presented as a theatre lets say but Cyprus goes for smth mainstream or ESC-standard. Also may remind you Kalomira, she was very girly too (she came 3rd by the way) as well but i still find her choregoraphy better. I am not implying that Cyprus will succeed but I am trying to prove that your comaparison is too generic and ill-founded :p Sorry Darko, you just put some things together in order to serve smth you ”feel”.
Wish list: ALB, ICE, ISR, MOL, FIN, ROM, SWI, DEN, LAT, HUN
Prediction: ROM, ICE, DEN, ALB, ISR, MOL, HUN, CYP, RUS (*sigh*) and GRE or IRE
I hope that I am wrong. Send quality to the final and enhance ESC’s musical credibility!
Toggie we have almost the same wish list.. I have Montenegro instead of Latvia
yeah we have 9 in common in the wish list, except I still hate Romania (as I hate most of these shaky europops) and because this semi is so weak, I tried hard and ended up having Austria as my 10th so far :p
Good article, even if I don’t agree with everything that was written. I’ll talk about my predictions tomorrow. A big ‘Suus’ to everyone! Vote for content! Stop glitter and gloss! A luta continua! Bem Bom! (Well, ‘Bem Bom’ is Portuguese glitter and gloss, but some people seem to think that it has a profound meaning! LOL) I just love ESC.
Shevek if we were allowed to vote more than one time, I will vote for Rona to till my fingers hurt
Have a wonderful ESC show tomorrow 
Please do, lovely Roselil. I will not be watching the semis live, but I am counting on your comments to keep me posted. Enjoy the show!
Well could you pls be more objective? I really do not care for your views and your taste in music. If you are about to predict smth you should consider other views as well… This website is intenrational isn’t it? Damn where is esctoday.com?
Dino you can follow esctoday.com on facebook.. they always update news
I see many people and some blogs thinking that Greece won’t make it while Ireland appears as a sure qualifier.Seeing the photos from the dress rehearsal,i can’t see any sane jury member voting for Jedward but anyway…Greece has more chances IMO.Montenegro,San Marino,Latvia,Israel and possibly Finland
won’t qualify.Cyprus will do an Estonia 11 like Donnie said.May qualify(8-10) and then flop at the final.It’s too girly and playful.Iceland,Romania,Russia and Denmark are the obvious qualifiers.I also think that Albania will qualify for sure.I,like many others,put Switzerland and Hungary together,One of them will qualify IMO.A qualification for both of them seems more difficult.Belgium may qualify IF the juries boost it.Moldova will possibly qualify too even though i’m not a big fan of the presentation and the ridiculous lyrics(how looks that trumphet…).I’m leaning towards a non qualification for Austria.They don’t seem to be that fun like in their N.F(“Oida taunz” would have sailed into the final…).And i’ll wrap it up with Greece.I can see why peple think,it may not qualify.It has troubled me a lot the last couple of days(I even had an unfortunate encounter with a snake while thinking about it 
) and i came up with this.Only if the juries hate it(14-18 place)it may miss the final.With my most moderate calculations,Greece will receive 70 pts,approximately.But yes.Greece and Ireland are the ones in danger(from the certain qualifiers zone i mean),
Russia was 16th last year with juries and still qualified…
In my books Greece has to score less than 70 pts in televoting and less than 30 pts jury-wise in order to miss the Final and for the kind of ACT “Aphrodisiac” is , I consider it unlikely at least televoting-wise…My only worry is the early draw cause it DOES matter…Kalomoira and Loukas made a huge televoting impact in their semi and the FACT that they performed last DID play a significant role imo!
Lol why you still worry about Greece? It is a manstream song that it can’t fail. Anyway it is presented well.
Here are my certain qualifiers:
Iceland, Greece, Albania, Romania, Finland, Cyprus, Denmark, Russia, Moldova. The last ticket will be either Ireland or Austria. Hungary might sneak in expense of Finland but a ballad with jury help still can make it (I mean Finland).
Yes Donnie.You are right.But they were 4th with televoting,Anyway,by that time tomorrow,we will be analyzing the results…:S
My wishlist: Albania, Finland, Israel, Iceland, Moldova, Montenegro, Russia, Denmark, Latvia, Hungary or Switzerland (pretty much a tie in my rankings).
My prediction, in random order: Iceland, Albania, Romania, Moldova, Russia, Denmark, Ireland, Finland or Israel (leaning towards Israel), Greece or Cyprus (leaning towards Greece), Hungary or Switzerland (leaning towards Switzerland).
my wish list (from first to tenth): Albania, Israel, Iceland, Finland are the 4 that I really would die for, then I think Switzerland, Denmark and Hungary really deserve to make it considering this bunch, the last three I’d save would be Moldova, Latvia and Austria (so out for me are Monteengro, Greece, Romania, Belgium, San Marino, Cyprus, Russia and Ireland)… I won’t discuss more now because it could change (especially Latvia and Austria making the cut) after seeing the live and I will explain in length as I do every year my FINAL rankings when they are known after eurovision…
as for a prediction I’d say that Romania, Russia and Iceland are the three I’m sure of; for a very long time I said Denmark would do a Anna Bergendhal, but that would only be true if she were in the second semi, in this one, she’s going through I think. I also think Ireland are not going to do that well, but they’ll barely make it. That’s five, as for the other five, it could go almost to anyone, except Montenegro and San Marino which I don’t see through at all and I also still think that between Greece and Cyprus, one will kill the other, and I’ll shock people but I think Cyprus won’t make the cut. I also don’t think Finland will stand out at all, and I fear the worst for Hungary too. Both of them being undeservely kill, their only hope is to grasp the juries help big time… which leaves hope for Albania and Israel after all! Just like Can said, I think Rona is just too amazing to not convince. She was an instant love of mine, and then she made it through three long nights of FiK and the juries will love her!
MONTENEGRO – I like it just because it’s so much against the grain but it has no chance to make it to the final. NO
ICELAND – Haunting, beautiful, great song and great performance. Definitely in. YES
GREECE – Many people vote for this kind of music (and for Greece) unless she “does Emmy” and hurts her chances with juries. But I doubt it will happen. YES
LATVIA – Nice song but bad draw and not sure if the song would appeal to many. NO
ALBANIA – Voice will do the trick I think. YES
ROMANIA – Of course, it’s a catchy song and lots of neighbors to help out. YES
SWITZERLAND – Possible qualifier if only juries will help them. But I doubt televoting public will go for it, so… NO
BELGIUM – Another “maybe” here. I think juries might like it but televoters are unlikely to vote for it in droves. Might squeeze in still. NO
FINLAND – Boring nonsense. NO
ISRAEL – The song is just so good, I’m hoping for it to pass but not so sure. NO
SAN MARINO – As much as I love Valentina Monetta and Ralph Siegel it has no chance. NO
CYPRUS – It’s a nice pop song that would appeal to many. I think this year Cyprus might get more points in the semi than Greece. YES
DENMARK – Anna Bergendahl almost made it to the final and this song is better than hers and the performer is better as well as the draw. So… YES
RUSSIA – Will people have no heart and leave my favorite song out? They shouldn’t. YES
HUNGARY – A borderline case that might just do the trick. YES
AUSTRIA – I don’t think Austria will appeal to many but should pick up a few points due to late draw. NO
MOLDOVA – This is one of those hidden gems. YES
IRELAND – It’s Jedward so expect to see the crazy twins on Saturday. YES
So, my qualifiers are:
ICELAND
GREECE
ALBANIA
ROMANIA
CYPRUS
DENMARK
RUSSIA
HUNGARY
MOLDOVA
IRELAND
The jurors are instructed to consider the commercial appeal of the song (among other things, of course). The chances of the Albanian song becoming a hit are exactly zero. It won’t resonate at all with televoters (see Israel 2010 for something similar, in my opinion), and I don’t believe it will qualify.
Nonsense imho. Did Lithuania 2011 have chart appeal? No, it didn’t. It won the jury vote in its semi nevertheless.
It’s instantly recognizable, and WILL be remembered (and not as negatively as Montenegro and San Marino).
Might as well post my predictions here (so I can brag about them in the unlikely event I do well). This SEEMS much easier to predict than the second semifinal (which is no guarantee of success, of course).
*DESIRED* outcome:
01 Romania
02 Greece
03 Iceland
04 Austria
05 Switzerland
06 Cyprus
07 Belgium
08 Ireland
09 Israel
10 Finland
11 Moldova
12 Latvia
13 Denmark
14 San Marino
15 Hungary
16 Albania
17 Montenegro
18 Russia
*PREDICTED* outcome:
01 Russia
02 Romania
03 Greece
04 Iceland
05 Cyprus
06 Ireland
07 Moldova
08 Denmark
09 Switzerland
10 Austria
11 Albania
12 Israel
13 Belgium
14 Latvia
15 Hungary
16 Finland
17 San Marino
18 Montenegro
Personally I think this semi is weaker than the second and I really only like 8 of the entries but this is about who I want to qualify so…
Montenegro – NO, the donkey would get more votes by standing on its own on the stage
Iceland – YES, one of my favourites for the Euro crown
Greece – YES, because it is catchy but she needs to nail it tonight as her rehearsals have not been that good
Latvia – NO, utterly forgettable
Albania – NO, only Bjork gets away with that sort of singing/yelling
Romania – YES, fun and well performed
Switzerland – NO, was half expecting Bono and The Edge to be on stage, poor man’s U2
Belgium – NO, pretty voice but will be swamped by the other ballads around it
Finland – YES, think this is beautiful and hope it gets through
Israel – NO, it is different to everyone else but not that good
San Marino – NO, she does sing well live but the lyrics are rubbish
Cyprus – NO, does nothing for me and of the two, I prefer Greece (might come down to performance)
Denmark – YES, I think this could be an outside bet for the Euro win, she’s nails every live performance, its got a hook and the words are catchy
Russia – NO, it is sweet and people can’t believe what they are seeing but for me there are far better entries
Hungary – YES, this is excellent, well sung, meaningful lyrics, hope it does well
Austria – NO, NO, NO, just no! Although it does sound as though they are saying an English swear word every time they say ‘Woki’ (I know, childish eh?)
Moldova – YES, I like this, upbeat, different to the other SF entries
Ireland – YES, Jedward have a better song, have had a year extra to learn how to sing whilst moving, a possible outsider for the Euro title
As I said, I only like 8 and I would like to see all 8 of them qualify. As for the others – Russia will definitely go through, no problem. I really don’t care for the others – maybe Israel?
“she’s nails every live performance” — According to people who watched the jury rehearsal, Soluna’s vocals were rather messy when it mattered most. But I still think that Denmark will qualify.
can i please ask why you say this:… and never forget: it’s Belgium!
I really laughed at your theory why Russia will qualify: “It’s Russia and there are 6 half-dead grannies on stage”.
I think you are right in your prediction, except that I can’t see Hungary qualify. But we’ll have to wait and see…